High Wind in Texas, April 1, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
359 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS NEARLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS UP INTO
THE 30S IN ITS WAKE. SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ATTEMPTING TO
SLIDE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL HAVE THEM IN THE GRIDS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. BELIEVE THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES WILL HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A COOLER DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT AROUND THROUGH THE EAST.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BRING BACK THE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE POISED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO SURGE BACK TO THE
WEST IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. A STRONG PIECE OF JET
ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND SHOULD HELP TO
INCREASE THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH IT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL 09Z OR SO.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SOME
HAIL.

LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT LEAN HEAVILY ON THE RETURN OF THE
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP IT A BIT
WARMER. DID NOT ADD FOG TO THE TOMORROW MORNING FORECAST YET. THIS
MAY BE AN ISSUE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
POTENTIAL ACTIVE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
AND THEN POSSIBLE WIND AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE SECOND
HALF OF THURSDAY.

WAA REGIME OVER COOL DOME AT THE SURFACE COULD RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LOCATIONS
GENERALLY OFF THE CAPROCK MOST FAVORED. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND PROGGED 600-800 J/KG OF MUCAPE SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THIS FIRST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CA COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IN NORTHERN NM WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS EASTERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. STILL...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A
COOL DAY...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY HANGING TOUGH ALL DAY...EXCEPT MAYBE
NEAR THE STATE LINE. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR
MORE STORM INITIATION IN EASTERN NM LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CAP APPEARS TO BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH OPERATIONAL WRF-NAM/GFS AND SREF DATA REFUSING TO
GENERATE ANY QPF. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING LIFT AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED CONVECTION. IT
APPEARS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST FAVORED OVER THE CENTRAL
ZONES INITIALLY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE SHIFT TO THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. THESE WINDS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED
ADVISORY LEVELS AND COUPLED WITH A DRYING AND WARMING ATMOSPHERE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWINGS PAST
WITH A COOLER DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE DRY AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AS NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES BY TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  36  70  48  71 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         58  34  60  49  73 /   0  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  36  62  52  76 /   0  10  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     63  38  69  54  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       62  40  65  55  79 /   0  10  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   64  42  73  56  80 /   0  10  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    64  41  70  57  80 /   0  10  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     63  41  59  50  77 /   0  10  30  30  30
SPUR          63  42  63  55  82 /   0  20  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     61  46  63  56  81 /   0  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

18/23/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
550 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

TXZ021>044-021100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
550 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG MIDDLE LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST BY
AROUND NOON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.