Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, June 24, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TONIGHT THE MAIN ACTION APPEARS AS IF IT WILL SPREAD
EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
CWA. SHEAR IS HALF WAY DECENT PER 0-6KM BULK SHEARS. MEANWHILE
SFC/ML CAPES ARE ALSO DECENT WITH DEWPOINTS HEADED INTO THE 60S.
THE ONE THING LACKING COULD BE UPPER SUPPORT AS S/W HEADS
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LESSENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...NEARLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CRANKING OUT
AN OVERNIGHT MCS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. SO ITS HARD TO GO AGAINST THAT CONSISTENCY WITHOUT A GOOD
REASON. SWITCHING TO WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR BEING DELIVERED VIA WEAK SFC
HIGH. IT NOW APPEARS THAT CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY ARE NIL
AT BEST AND HAVE REMOVED THEM. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSES THROUGH HERE TNT WILL SPLAY OUT OVER
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. AS LLJ CRANKS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE MAY GET
ANOTHER MCS TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THAT SYSTEM
PROBABLY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST MOSTLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE ABR
CWA. FOR THURSDAY MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS STRONG OVER THE
CWA WITH H7 TEMPS TOPPING 10C OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUS EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL BOUNDARY
BEGINS PUSHING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LLM AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN MCS/SQUALL
LINE. BUMPED UP POPS TO JUST UNDER LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONCERNING TEMPS...LATEST MAV LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAYS
NUMBERS...AND WAS SUPPORTED BY GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN ISSUES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN TO WHAT EXTENT TEMPS WARM LATER NEXT WEEK.
MODELS STILL SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH...BUT ALL AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD STILL BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA
FOR FRIDAY. SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP AROUND.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO GET RID OF POPS COMPLETELY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING ANY DAYTIME
HEATING DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THERE WILL BE
COLD AIR ALOFT.

FROM LATE WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR
THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE MID 80S TO LOW 90S A GOOD BET ACROSS THE
AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WEATHER PATTERN ALSO LOOKS DRY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH FEW-SCT CIGS ABOVE 6000 FT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS. TSRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
NEAR KMBG/KPIR BY THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO KABR/KATY
AREAS AFTER 03Z. CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WILL DROP
INTO MVFR. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCES FOR ANY TSRA WILL
BE ACROSS KMBG AND KABR.
&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-252015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
309 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008 /209 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN SOME OF THOSE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TDK