Flash Flooding and Flooding in Missouri, June 24 to 27, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MCV WAS LOCATED IN XTRM SCNTRL KS EAST OF GRI WITH A NARROW TROPICAL
FETCH AHEAD OF THE MCV FM NWRN OK TO NWRN MO. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WRM FRNT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF MKC TO NR DMO. THE
INTERACTION OF THE MCV AND THE FUTURE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE CRITICAL FOR SVR WX DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP BOUNDARY FM MVG RAPIDLY NORTH LATE THIS AFTN WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO FLANK I-70 BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE
ACR SWRN/WCNTRL MO WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR
BETWEEN 30-40 WAS ALSO NOTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED
HELICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND GIVEN THE MCV
TRACK AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VECTOR...THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...MAINLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM I-70 TO
ROUTE 36. HAVE ISSUED AN FFA FOR THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME AND THE FFA MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED NORTH TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES
BRUSHING THE EXTREME NRN CWA. CAP ALSO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MAY NOT PRECLUDE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE IOWA BORDER. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE MAV/MET PREFERRED.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (FRI-TUE)

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEK AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.  OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO
DEPICT LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...STRONG MID-LVL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  A HIGH
DEGREE OF VARIABILITY EXISTS AS TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THIS TROUGH...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE WEAKER
MID-LVL WAVES TRANSVERSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRIOR TO
FRIDAY. REGARDLESS...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DROP
INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTN...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WOULD INDUCE NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE SAT-MON TIME
PERIODS AND WITH MOISTURE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  HAVE REMAINED COOLER THAN CURRENT HPC GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN AND LIKELY SATURATED GROUNDS.  TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S...WITH 90 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
COMPLETELY.

WHILE ONLY SPECULATION AT THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY...SEEMS
AS IF TYPICALLY STRONG MID-LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN AT BAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE THE REGION IN A
RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WEAK-MID LVL
SHORTWAVES...AND ON AND OFF PRECIPITATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS A
RESULT HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED TIME FRAME.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO NRN MO.
BEST TIMING IS BTWN 01-04Z BUT AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TO
ADJUST TIMING. THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL END AFT 06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL WITH THE
CONVECTION.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ013-MOZ020-MOZ021-
     MOZ028-MOZ029.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-
     MOZ017-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ102-KSZ103.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251745-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO 50 MILES
SOUTH OF SEDALIA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...ALLOWING A WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUNSHINE RETURNS
TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY
AFTERNOON...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE
70 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH
OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MORNING RAINFALL... THIS SETUP
WILL PROVIDE FOR A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN A
CORRIDOR FROM INTERSTATE 70 TO ROUTE 36 IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH REPEATED CHANCES AT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE GREATEST TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL IS GENERALLY
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT... ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
524 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

MOZ039-242300-
SALINE-
524 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

AT 520 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 24 MPH.

THE TOWN OF SLATER WILL BE IN THE PATH OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

DUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
540 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

MOZ023-024-031-242315-
CARROLL-LINN-LIVINGSTON-
540 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN
LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN LINN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 539 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HALE...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKFIELD.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN CARROLL...
SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN LINN COUNTIES.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DUX