Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 9, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
240 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL TOUCH OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST AS UPPER TROUGH
OUT WEST CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IS
APPEARING OVER THE AREA IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON CU. CLOUDS MAINLY
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT MAY DEVELOP OVER REST
OF AREA AS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE UP CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST LAPS CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG
AND LIS -8. SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE. FORTUNATELY...THE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S AGAIN AND KEPT
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE BELOW THE
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL HAVE A 10 PERCENT POP.

LATER THIS EVENING AFTER THE SUN HAS GONE DOWN...THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION WILL ALSO DISAPPEAR. ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AGREE WITH GFS AND NAM SHOWING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INFLUENCE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER AREA. LOWER H5 HEIGHTS AND MORE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AT THE SAME TIME DECREASE THE VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN MORE MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TUESDAY LOWERING TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE SUNDAY AND A TROUGH REPLACES THE RIDGE
FOR MONDAY. THIS TIME THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
OFFSHORE EAST OF HERE. SO LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OR WITH
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT SHOULD PROVIDE AREA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
EITHER A CHANCE OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FINALLY...AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT EAST
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE PERIOD. A BIT MORE DIFFERENCE
IN LOW TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE IN PERIOD. LOWS AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT DROP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
MIDDAY...WITH HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED...INHIBITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS.

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
328 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-100730-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
328 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.