Flash Flooding and Hail in Indiana, June 9 to 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1202 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCT TSRA ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z SO EXPECT
PREVAILING CONDS TO BECOME MVFR IN BOTH VIS AND CIGS. LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT PICS SHOW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS ACROSS IL/MO IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...SO LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS TO BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AND PERIODS OF IFR VIS WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIP INTO EARLY TUES
AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. CONDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
VFR AGAIN TUES AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND SWEEPS THE COLD FRONT
EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITY
TODAY.

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR
MSP TO MCI. A LOW PRESSURE WAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TWIN CITIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A COMPLEX OF STORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER ILLINOIS WAS SLOWLY MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION. BUT
IT CONTINUED TO LOSE STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE SOUTH EAST
RIDGE. ALOFT AT H5 THE PATTERN REMAINED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. RIDGING
WAS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPCOMING
SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE PMDHMD SUGGESTED SIDING CLOSER TO THE NAM
SOLUTION BECAUSE IT WAS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AND HAD SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODELS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET. SO WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT
TO THE NAM SOLUTION FOR TIMING OF PRECIP...POPS...AND THE IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.

FOR TODAY THE QUESTIONS ALL REVOLVE AROUND THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS
AND HOW IT PROGRESSES EAST. THE ONGOING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS
STEADILY BEEN WEAKENING. WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FAR NORTHWEST
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OUT OF THIS THING BY
DAYBREAK...OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE RAIN HAS BECOME LIGHTER AND
LIGHTER ON THE LEADING EDGE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS...AND ALSO LIGHTNING
HAS BEEN ON THE DECLINE STEADILY TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE ITS RATHER LARGE AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA.

EARLY CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO BE REACHED EASILY. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS PRESENCE OF A WEAK CAP THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COOLING
IMPACT ON TEMPS THERE SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP AS WELL AS
STRONG SURFACE HEATING.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN A POSITION NEAR THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS
BORDER BY 00Z. THE PRESENCE OF THE APPROACHING DEEP LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THE
ENHANCED LIFTING OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO FOCUS ON THE REMNANTS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

CONTINUED GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT INVERTED V LOOK
TO SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. VERY STRONG MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
WILL SUPPORT SOME LARGE HAIL DESPITE WARM LOW LEVELS. AS FOR
TORNADO THREAT...THIS MAY BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. CURRENT SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY...SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD TURN
HODOGRAPHS INTO VERY FAVORABLE SHAPES...SO ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

THE WORST IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. IT IS AGAIN A SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH DEEP AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE THAT ENCOUNTERS OUR SOUTHEAST RIDGE. PWATS SHOULD
APPROACH 2 INCHES TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LOW FFG AND ONGOING NEAR
RECORD FLOODING...WILL CONTINUE THE FFA AND HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WIND DOWN TUESDAY AM...AND CLEAR OUT DURING THE
DAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR
+13C FOR A HIGH NEAR 80.

PAST TUESDAY IT LOOKS QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE WEST AND PUSH MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR BACK
INTO THE MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK TO SEND TEMPS BACK NEAR 90. NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

PUBLIC...JOHNSON
AVIATION...CO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051-052-055>057-060-065-072-100830-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-JOHNSON-SHELBY-
RUSH-SULLIVAN-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
425 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PRIMARILY
NORTH AND WEST OF A BEDFORD TO RUSHVILLE LINE. THREATS TODAY WILL
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BECOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING.

MINOR TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG MANY OF THE
RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SEE THE LATEST HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT FOR
COMPLETE INFORMATION AND MORE DETAILS REGARDING RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR THEN.

MANY CENTRAL INDIANA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD POSSIBLY WORSEN THE ONGOING FLOODING OR PREVENT
WATERS FROM RECEDING AS QUICKLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ053-054-061>064-067>071-100830-
OWEN-MORGAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
425 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PRIMARILY
NORTH AND WEST OF A BEDFORD TO RUSHVILLE LINE. THREATS TODAY WILL
INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BECOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING.

MAJOR TO NEAR RECORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WHITE RIVER AND EAST FORK WHITE RIVER BASINS TODAY. SEE THE
LATEST HYDROLOGICAL STATEMENT FOR COMPLETE INFORMATION AND MORE
DETAILS REGARDING RIVER FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR THEN.

NEAR RECORD FLOODING ON THE WHITE RIVER AND EAST FORK WHITE RIVER
BASINS WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE THIS COMING WEEK. HOWEVER RIVERS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN MANY LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
ANY ADDI TONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD POSSIBLY WORSEN THE ONGOING
FLOODING OR PREVENT WATERS FROM RECEDING AS QUICKLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

INZ045-051>056-060>064-092000-
BARTHOLOMEW-BROWN-CLAY-GREENE-JOHNSON-MONROE-MORGAN-OWEN-PUTNAM-
SHELBY-SULLIVAN-VIGO-
1016 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA...

...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
GREENE...SULLIVAN...MONROE...BROWN...OWEN...CLAY...VIGO...MORGAN...
SHELBY...BARTHOLOMEW...JOHNSON AND SOUTHERN PUTNAM COUNTIES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

AT 948 AM EDT...REPORTS OUT OF MANY COUNTIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT SOME COUNTY ROADS AND OTHER AREAS REMAIN FLOODED THIS MORNING.
WATER LEVELS WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TODAY HOWEVER ALL ARE URGED TO
CONTINUE TO BE CAUTIOUS TODAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

NIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
145 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-100000-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
145 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY INFORMATION...

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO PRACTICE YOUR SAFETY PLAN AT WORK
AND IN THE HOME.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BE AWARE OF YOUR ENVIRONMENT...AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET...FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
OR STATEMENTS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING...USUALLY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ONE OR
MORE COUNTIES AT A TIME...MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. THOSE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM MUST SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS...AND BELOW
GROUND IF POSSIBLE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.
IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO...OR IF YOU FEEL THREATENED...MOVE
IMMEDIATELY TO SHELTER. SECONDS CAN SAVE YOUR LIFE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM HAIL OR
WIND...AND CAN BE DEADLY. IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS
ISSUED...MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY...JUST AS YOU WOULD DURING A
TORNADO WARNING. HAVE A WEATHER RADIO...RADIO...OR TELEVISION NEARBY
TO STAY ALERT OF ANY CHANGES TO THE WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR MORE SAFETY...FORECAST...AND WARNING INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/INDY.

NIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
221 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             NORTH TERRE HAUTE       39.54N 87.36W
06/09/2008  U0.25 INCH       VIGO               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NIELD