Tornadoes in Oklahoma, September 11 to 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM ONE FORECAST SHIFT
TO THE NEXT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DIALED IN ON THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FOR SOME TIME NOW. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A BROAD
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ZONES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW
SHOWING UP OUT IN WEST TEXAS...AND THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE
RAINFALL INTENSITY COULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
STRONGER DEEP LAYER LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN TIED
TO LIFT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND THIS AXIS IS NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE APPRECIABLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULT COULD BE A
SLOWLY WORSENING SITUATION THAT EVENTUALLY LEADS TO VERY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALTUS TO KINGFISHER TO STILLWATER.

FARTHER SOUTH...A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING
TO A THINNING OF CLOUDS AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER IN
THOSE REGION...WITH LOWER RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL DOWNPOURS.

EARLY SATURDAY...MID LEVEL LIFT COMES TO A MINIMUM FOR A SHORT
TIME...BUT LIFT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE RAPID APPROACH OF HURRICANE
IKE. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE IS MORE LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS...IT IS A LARGE STORM THAT WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER...WHERE IT CAN INTERACT
WITH THE COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST IS
STILL IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF IKE STRENGTHENS TO
THE POINT WHERE IT WOULD HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE ONGOING UNCERTAINTIES...WE WILL CONTINUE THE
ENTIRE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  85  69  81 /  60  40  30  60
HOBART OK         70  86  70  80 /  90  60  40  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  90  71  82 /  40  30  20  70
GAGE OK           65  78  63  77 / 100  80  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     69  84  70  80 /  90  60  50  60
DURANT OK         71  87  73  85 /  30  10  20  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/22
BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1157 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WILL INCREASE...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
WITH GULF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT. A JET STREAM
ALIGNED FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TOWARD THE PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONTINUAL RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING. RAINFALL...HOWEVER...WILL BE QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES...AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...INITIALLY ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND IN POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS.
EVENTUALLY...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE GREATEST
CONCERN IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CROWELL AND VERNON TEXAS
TO OKLAHOMA CITY AND STILLWATER. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THIS LINE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND LOWER
RAIN TOTALS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...THEY WOULD MOST LIKELY
AFFECT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER VERY LOW.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHEN A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO INCH TOWARD
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE
TO KEEP FLOODING RAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IF YOU LIVE
IN OR NEAR AN AREA THAT IS PRONE TO FLOODING...YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO
STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY STEPS TO MINIMIZE FLOODING IMPACTS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

BURKE