Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 9 to 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATE
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FIRST ISSUE IS IN REGARD TO HOW MUCH LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL FIRE
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LAPS SOUNDING AT AVL IS QUITE UNSTABLE AT 17Z.
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. A
BRIEF DAMAGING DOWNBURST AND HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH CANT BE RULED OUT
AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 45K FT. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. AS EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT IN
THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THINGS CAPPED THERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT...
GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH WARM MIN TEMPS
SIMILAR TO MAV MOS.

ON TUE...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKE THE THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ARE GOING TO HAVE TO ENDURE ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HEAT.
EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST....H850 THICKNESS IS
STILL FORECAST TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 100. 12Z MAV MOS HAS
COME IN AT 98 FOR BOTH GSP/CLT WHICH MATCHES THEIR RECORD HIGHS. SEE
NO REASON NOT TO BUY INTO THOSE TEMPS AS EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. BOTH GFS/NAM BRING A WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
TRIGGER SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK THERE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE FOOTHILLS BY 00Z AS BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE LATE SPRING HEAT WAVE FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...NOT BY AN UPPER PATTERN CHANGE...BUT BY AN
INCREASE OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHICH WILL FUEL MORE CLOUDS
AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THIS WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE BY THE 850MB RIDGE
BEING NUDGED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW A DYING FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT QUICKLY WASHES OUT...ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG IT ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AT LOW LEVELS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A RELATIVELY EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY. AS INSTABILITY IS USED UP...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MOISTURE FLUX LATER IN THE DAY. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ACT TO KEEP A BIT
OF A LID ON HIGH TEMPS...ALL THE SAME...WENT WITH THE WARMEST OF THE
GUIDANCE AT EACH FORECAST POINT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS...BUT TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ONE MORE TIME ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON SHOWER CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST...WHILE ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EAST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE FRONT FASTER TO THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF HAVING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE EC HAS THE FRONT
OVER TENNESSEE EARLY SUNDAY...SO QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE.  INSTEAD
OF THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS HAS IT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAROLINA COAST TO AROUND MOBILE AL LATE MONDAY.  THUS...THIS
WEAK FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING BOUNDARY.
SOME UPPER TROFINESS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
NATION TO START NEXT WEEK ACCORDING TO THE MODELS AND THAT WILL HELP
IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER SET OF RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD TAFS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO STUBBORNLY HOLD ON THROUGH 18Z TUE...EVEN THOUGH IT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WARRANTS AN INCLUSION OF CB IN THE AVL CLOUD
GROUP IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WILL CONTINUE. I WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE HOURS OF HAZE
FROM 11Z-13Z IN ALL OF THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVL/KHKY WHICH IS
ESSENTIALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WILL
HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ON TUESDAY...AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTRH OF THE AREA BY LATE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL HELP TO POOL
MOISTURE AND TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR IN WHICH
THEY LAST OCCURRED FOR GSP...CLT...AND AVL.

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG

TUESDAY   6/10  98 1947
WEDNESDAY 6/11  99 1914

CHARLOTTE

TUESDAY   6/10  99 1947
WEDNESDAY 6/11 100 1914

ASHEVILLE

TUESDAY   6/10  90 1993
WEDNESDAY 6/11  88 1981

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG
CLIMATE...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
503 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-100915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
503 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S...TO AROUND 100...OVER
MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY
INSTANCES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...KEEPING THE HEAT
INDEX UNDER THE 105 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
PENNY SIZED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

NCZ051-092015-
SWAIN-
309 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SWAIN COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALARKA...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BRYSON CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WESSER...
  LUADA...BRYSON CITY...ALMOND AND ALARKA.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

NCZ052-053-092000-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-
311 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HAYWOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRUSO...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 9 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUNBURST...
  LAKE JUNALUSKA...CRUSO...CLYDE...CANTON AND CANDLER.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB