Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 2, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY
AND STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BEFORE
DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. PERHAPS IT IS THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT...BUT STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO GET
THEIR ACT TOGETHER OTHER THAN UP OVER FAR NRN NC WHERE EXISTING COLD
POOLS HAVE BEEN DRIVING CONVECTION ALL DAY. A GOOD AMOUNT OF TSTM
COVERAGE STILL SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PER THE INCREASING PVA
AND LLVL MASS CONVERGENCE. I/LL WAIT AS LONG AS I CAN ON THE
AFTERNOON ISSUANCE...AS I MAY HAVE TO BACK DOWN FROM MY LOW END
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE LEE. ANY STORMS THAT EXHIBIT A MODERATE AMOUNT
OF 60+ DBZ RETURNS AOA 20KFT WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS.

A RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT AND
PRETTY MUCH DISSOLVE ON SUNDAY. MID LEVEL WARMING WILL CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH OF THE DAY...AND BETTER MOISTURE LOOKS TO POOL DOWN
ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE SMALL DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN COULD STILL TRIGGER A FEW SHRA/TSTMS AND I HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 110 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
THE HEAT...AS MID LVL RIDGING HOLDS ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
MONDAY WILL START OUT A LITTLE DRIER THANKS TO SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING (DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S). AMONG THE
NAM/GFS/SREF/ECM...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE A SFC TROF
WILL SET UP BETWEEN A HIGH OVR THE OH VLY AND A BERMUDA HIGH TO THE
SE. THE TROF WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION...AS AREA TO
THE S WILL BE UNSTABLE...WHILE RELATIVELY STABLE AIR WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE N. FOR NOW...I JUST ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE CWFA.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE HOT...AS H85
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLC.
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAK RETURN FLOW
STARTING LATE MONDAY...ALLOWING DEWPTS TO SLOLY CREEP UPWDS. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPR 90S BOTH DAYS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE TUESDAY
AND 103-108 RANGE WEDNESDAY. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH HPC MEDIUM
RANGE HEAT INDEX GUIDANCE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
POPS WILL STILL BE MEAGER BOTH DAYS...WITH SLGT CHC IN THE MTNS TUES
AFTN...AND ACRS ENTIRE CWFA WEDNESDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A L/W TROF ACRS THE EASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT SHUD ENTER OUR CWFA SOMETIME ON THURSDAY...THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY THRU SATURDAY...AS UPR TROF PERSISTS. OVERALL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE...I BLENDED INHERITED GRIDS WITH
LATEST HPC GUIDANCE (RESULTING IN NO BIG CHANGES). WITH THIS
PATTERN...THERE SHUD BE A SLOW COOLING TREND IN TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL
BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CHC POPS EACH AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NC MTNS. ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT NC MTN AND
FOOTHILL TAF SITES AS WELL AS KGSP AND KGMU. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LOT OF WIND...SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT
FOR AT LOCAL AIRFIELDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SW THIS
AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR KAVL AND KHKY WHICH ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LEE TROUGH. INCLUDED MVFR FOG AT MANY SITES TONIGHT PER THE HIGHER
MOS PROBABILITIES. CHANCES WILL BE MUCH BETTER FOR FOG AT ANY SITES
THAT SEE SOME RAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
TOMORROW...THOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL LAST FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LITTLE FOG AND HAZE IS LIKELY IN THE
MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL. CHANCES OF TSTMS WILL IMPROVE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1222 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-031630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1222 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-031630-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1222 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF PENNIES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
PARTICULARLY STRONG MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OVER 80 MPH POSSIBLE.

IT WILL BE HOT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1240 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ048-049-021730-
MADISON-YANCEY-
1240 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND WESTERN
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUSCULUM...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GREENEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 19 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...SWISS...MARS HILL...FAUST AND ALLENSTAND.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ501-502-021830-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
204 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LENOIR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
18 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

LENOIR AND HUDSON...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ502-021845-
GREATER CALDWELL-
220 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGS CREEK...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LENOIR...MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

KINGS CREEK...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

NCZ035-021900-
ALEXANDER-
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF BOOMER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 23
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ALEXANDER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

TAYLORSVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LANE