Tornado in North Carolina, April 28, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS. IN ITS WAKE...A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS THEN WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AS IT DRIFTS OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER
FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 730Z...THE SW TO NE ORIENTED SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
INTERSECTION OF THE AL/GA/TN STATE LINES. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISO TS
HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
VERY HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
EARLY THIS MORNING. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
MTNS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...A BETTER DEFINED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED TO 300 J/KG OR LESS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE CWA...SEE SPC DY1 OUTLOOK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH TODAY...MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND 0.75.

COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE REGION WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE CWA
WILL SEE CLOUD COVER ERODING AND MARGINAL NW WIND GUSTS. LATE ARRIVING
CAA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WITH STRONG DPVA. AFTER A LULL
IN THE EARLY EVENING...THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE TN BORDER AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES ON THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM TODAY. TEMPS
WILL DROP TO THE POINT WHERE SOME MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT
RIDGETOP LEVEL. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BREACH CONTAINMENT AS THE
MAIN UPPER FORCING MOVES THROUGH...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS EXTENDED
EAST ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

THE GFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY
WHILE THE NAM PULLS THE MOISTURE OUT QUICKLY BY NOON. AS A
COMPROMISE...WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NRN
MTNS FIRST THING TUESDAY MORNING OWING TO THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE MODELS OVER THE GREAT VALLEY STILL BEING RUN
UP THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS BY THE NW FLOW. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROF
AXIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW.

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF BLACKBERRY WINTER OF
SORTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NEARLY IDEAL
WITH CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. HAVE NUDGED MOST LOCATIONS DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THIS. FROST IS A NEAR CERTAINTY OVER THE MTNS
AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PROBABLY GET A
FREEZE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HANDLE A FREEZE WATCH SINCE WE HAVE
ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE TO PLAY WITH. EAST OF THE MTNS...RIGHT NOW
PATCHY FROST LOOKS LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS
MIGHT BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WILL ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS IN THE HWO.

TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SUNNY SKY AND HIGH
PRESSURE REACHING THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...THE LATEST GFS SUPPORTS THE GENERAL TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WERE FINE TUNED
A BIT BASED ON THE NEW MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS THE PRECIP TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN ALLOWS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM SEEN IN THE ONGOING FORECAST IS THE MIN TEMP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE MIN TEMP ABOUT A CATEGORY WITH THE
IDEA THAT AIR MASS WILL NOT MODIFY AS QUICKLY AS THOUGHT EARLIER.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TEMP CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 11Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS RUNNING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. AREAS OF SHRA AND ISO TS CONTINUE WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS BETWEEN 11-14Z. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
MTNS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY DRIVING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES...CEILINGS MAY REMAIN OR FALL IFR AND POSSIBLY TEMPO LIFR.

BETWEEN 13-15Z...WINDS SHOULD VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH MARGINAL
WIND GUSTS. DRYING SHOULD STEADILY TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND
SUNSET...WIND GUSTS WILL CEASE AND WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A QUIET WX PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. FROST
TEMPERATURES MAY EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT/NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-291000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
549 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND COULD
FALL BELOW FREEZING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD FALL AT THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
GET BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST...A WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY. A FREEZE WATCH
MAY BE ISSUED FOR ALL OR PART OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-291000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
549 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE
EAST... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. IF WINDS
GO CALM...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY IN
NORMALLY SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

SCZ007-281230-
SPARTANBURG-
747 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SPARTANBURG
COUNTY THROUGH 830 AM EDT...

AT 747 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FIVE FORKS...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GSP
  AIRPORT...WELLFORD...SPARTANBURG...ROEBUCK...REIDVILLE...MOORE...
  MAYO...LYMAN...DUNCAN AND BOILING SPRINGS SC.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
837 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

NCZ068-SCZ007-008-281315-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-SPARTANBURG-
837 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

...A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
SPARTANBURG...NORTHERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 915 AM EDT...

AT 837 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF COWPENS...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SPARTANBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHELBY...
  PATTERSON SPRINGS...EARL...BOILING SPRINGS NC...THICKETTY...MAYO...
  GAFFNEY...COWPENS AND BLACKSBURG.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
918 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

NCZ068-070-281345-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-
918 AM EDT MON APR 28 2008

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN GASTON AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM
EDT...

AT 918 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR EARL...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF SHELBY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 34 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WACO...
  SHELBY...PATTERSON SPRINGS...KINGS MOUNTAIN...GROVER...DALLAS...
  CHERRYVILLE AND BESSEMER CITY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

JPT