NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 28, 2:57 PM EST, 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 28, 2:57 PM EST, 41 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT MON APR 28 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY, THEN SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER WEDNESDAY, A
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WILL TRY AND ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MAY
HOLD THIS FRONT AT BAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN WASHING OUT ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO VIRGINIA. THIS LOW IS
TRAVELING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND HAS MADE ITS WAY TO
MONMOUTH COUNTY BACK AROUND PHILADELPHIA TO NEAR WASHINGTON DC.
SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED MAINLY INTO THE LOWER
60S. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLIER, AREAS OF DENSE FOG WAS
REPORTED ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
MASS WAS LIFTED ABOVE THE REMAINING COOLER AIR. THERE STILL IS
SOME FOG AROUND, HOWEVER WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT IN
VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST. FOR NOW, WE WILL NOT INCLUDE A FOG
MENTION TONIGHT AS A TREND FOR IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROLL
EASTWARD TONIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED, TRANSPORTING
AN ABUNDANCE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED STREET AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. DUE TO ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A BIT OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR DELMARVA ZONES.
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO VIRGINIA HAS
ORGANIZED INTO A NARROW LINE, AND THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. SO FAR, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THIS LINE DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE. WE
KEPT A CHC FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BASED ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE CONVECTIVE LINE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY PUNCH IN THE MIDLEVELS MOVING UP THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD HANG BACK
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE BUILDING INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE WIND
FIELD THOUGH IS HEALTHY WITH SHEAR PRESENT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION /AROUND 40 KNOTS OF
WIND AT 4,000 FEET VIA KDIX VAD WIND PROFILE/, THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE, THEREFORE WE
WILL MONITOR FOR ISOLATED ROTATION EARLY ON.
OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING /ESPECIALLY EAST/
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN, THEREFORE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MOS TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND WERE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING QUICKLY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SWINGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SHOWER CHCS TUESDAY
AS THE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT
/LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE INDICATED/, THEREFORE A FEW SHOWERS
STILL MAY POP UP. AS A RESULT, WE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE
GRIDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY TUESDAY EVENING, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING TUESDAY UNDER CAA
AND CYCLONIC FLOW. THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE NOT THAT
STRONG, HOWEVER ENOUGH TO CREATE AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY EDGES CLOSER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TURBULENT MIXING TUESDAY
NIGHT TO NOT ALLOW FOR FULL DECOUPLING. DESPITE THIS, THE AIR
MASS IS DRYING AND ENOUGH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AT OR BELOW
FREEZING IN SOME PLACES. BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO
MORRIS COUNTY NORTHWARD ARE FREEZE ONLY UNTIL MAY 1ST WITH CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX COUNTY IN NEW
JERSEY NOT STARTING THEIR OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON UNTIL MAY 1ST.
FOR NOW, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE WATCHES BUT ADD A MENTION
OF FROST IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST AND INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK /HWO/.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
BECOME ORGANIZED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AS A
STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS NEAR WESTERN KANSAS. WITH SOME LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST, WE
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE DEVELOPING WAA
REGIME WELL TO OUR WEST. FOR NOW WE HELD ONTO SOME HIGHER SKY
COVER PERCENTAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. REGARDING TEMPERATURES OVERALL, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
COOLER ETA MOS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA, THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF ENERGY
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
U.S. THURSDAY. ALSO, WITH THE CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK, AND THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION OF THESE
FEATURES. THE GFS/CMC ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY MUCH ALL OVER THE PLACE
REGARDING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AT 500 MB. OF THE SLIGHT AGREEMENT,
IS THE PLACEMENT OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST FRIDAY,
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE. HPC UTILIZED AN EVENLY WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS, AS THESE
TWO MODELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY SIMILAR AS TO NOT MAKE THINGS MORE
UNCLEAR. THE FLAVOR OF THE MODELS DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES, SEEMS TO
HINT AT A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHEAST WHILE A NEW
CLOSED LOW SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. THESE FEATURES MAY BE SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE GIVEN SOME BLOCKING. THIS PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO OUR
RECENT ONE WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT EVENTUALLY TRACKS UP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH SUCH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST, RIDGING IS
TYPICALLY ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM, WHICH WOULD STRENGTHEN A SURFACE
HIGH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN CANADA TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO AN ONSHORE REGIME ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AS WE GO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE TOOK A LOOK AT THE
06Z PARALLEL GFS THAT HPC MENTIONED, AND IT DOES HINT AT A SURFACE
HIGH WEDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THAT HOLDS A WARM
FRONT AT BAY /DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW/. SINCE THERE IS HEIGHTENED
UNCERTAINTY, WE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY TO HPCS GUIDANCE WITH
SOME MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
BASED ON THE ABOVE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIFT INTO A PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY AT THE SURFACE, HOWEVER WE MAY HAVE SOME SORT OF
ELEVATED WARM FRONT FURTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO EASTERN CANADA, THEN GRADUALLY WEDGES ITSELF SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
FAVOR AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
FEATURE MAY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE MAIN ENERGY IS FORCED INTO
EASTERN CANADA AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE LEFTOVERS OF THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS OUR AREA THEN SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE
WENT WITH LOW TO MID CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE TIMES MENTIONED ABOVE /THIS
WAS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY/. OF COURSE THIS IS ALL SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BASED ON THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS AT 500 MB.
THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC FOR
THE COLLABORATION TODAY. HAVE A GOOD ONE
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO LIFR RANGE IN SPITE OF
THE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS SRN NJ. A RATHER SOLID AND
DEEP BAND OF FRONTAL CLOUDS IS KEEPING DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO A
MINIMUM. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER VA AND MD...AND THIS LINE WILL BE MOVG NEWD TOWARD
THE LOWER DEL VLY AND SRN NJ. THUS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VSBY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE AFTN.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH PHL SOMETIME
AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BUT CIGS MAY BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. THE TAF FCST HAS IFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THAT AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS ITS
WAY IN...THO MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CLEARING AND VFR CONDS
SHOULD DEVELP TUE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
BEYOND, THE TAF PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY THEN DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST THURSDAY BRING A CHANCE FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE SCA FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUSTY SLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SEAS HAVE BUILT TO BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT AT BUOYS 44009
AND 44025. WINDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT DUE TO RELATIVELY SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT. SEAS WILL BE SMWHT
SLOWER TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND THUS THE SCA FOR OCEAN WATERS
EXTENDS TO TUE MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THRU MID WEEK. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THAT TIME. A SUSTAINED E TO
NE WIND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK COULD BUILD SEAS BACK TO SCA
CONDS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
&&
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE/HPC
AVIATION...AMC
MARINE...AMC