Hail in North Carolina, April 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
339 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOIST AIR ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE EXITING LOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WED. AFTER THAT HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
INSTABILITY PREVALENT OVER THE REGION TODAY COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADV INTO THE REGION HAS LED TO
WIDESPREAD HAIL STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH LACK OF HEATING THE
AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP WAY OFF...BUT COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS AS LOW SINKS S...AND MOISTURE ADVECTS MORE INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. THE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AT IR/VSBY SAT...THIS TROPICAL LOOKING
SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DONT SEE
THE RAIN ALONG THE NE SECTIONS SHUTTING OFF ANYTIME SOON...AND
WITH AROUND 3 INCHES HAVEN FALLEN ALREADY (HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
AKQ COUNTIES TO THE N)...WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD ADV. UNLIKE AREAS
TO THE N...THE SOILS ARE MORE SANDY OR SWAMPY...AND CAN HANDLE SIG
AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITHOUT LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FEW URBAN
AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER...ESP IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...BUT DONT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD PONDING TO
JUSTIFY AREA FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT TEMPS TNT
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXP A FEW DEG COOLER IN THE MID 50S AS THE
LOW SINKS S AND N WINDS BECOME PREDOMINANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW
FOR TUE...BUT DONT ANTICIPATE ANY CAPPING INVERSION TO PREVENT
MIXING SO WOULD EXP BKN NOT OVC CONDITIONS. THE LACK OF A CAP WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ISO CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
CONTINUED STEEP LAPSE RATES. WITH MOIST/WAA AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK SVR WX WILL BE AS BIG A THREAT
AS SEEN IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DROP INTO WED AFT AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY AND MOISTURE ADV FINALLY
SHUTS OFF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THU WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND
THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. WENT CLOSE
TO HPC...SOLUTION HAS FRONT SLOWING DOWN AND GETTING INTO EASTERN NC
LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. BUMPED UP POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND
H5 LOW WHICH IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. WHILE CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP WILL BE LARGELY VFR...DO EXPECT FREQUENT BOUTS
OF MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

UNSETTLED WX PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. DRIER AIR
WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR VFR WEDS THRU LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE CSTL WATERS FOR MAINLY SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MORNING FROM OCRACOKE DOWN TO
CAPE LOOKOUT. AS UPPER LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE RESULT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BACKSWELL ENERGY AFFECTING
MAINLY THE CSTL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. BOTH THE WAVEWATCH AND
SWAN INDICATE THIS INCREASING TREND AND HAVE FOLLOWED WAVEWATCH
CLOSELY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA SEAS WILL BE LIKELY FROM TUES
INTO THURS OR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SJ
NEAR TERM...SJ
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...CLQ
AVIATION...CTC
MARINE...CTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
522 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-104-220930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
522 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-220930-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
522 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.