Lightning Strike in Minnesota, April 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDS OVR ENTIRE FCST AREA THROUGH 06Z WITH HIGH PRESS RIDGE
OVR CNTRAL MN. EXPECT WNDS TO DECREASE AFTER 02Z MOST AREAS AND
BECOME LGT/VRBL AT KRNH/KEAU AREAS AFTER 05Z. WITH LGT WNDS AND
RATHER HIGH DEWPTS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...MAY SEE SOME
MVFR FOG DVLP AT THESE SITES MAINLY AFTER 09Z. ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 13Z WED. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MAINLY KAXN/KSTC AREAS
LATE TONIGHT AND WED...AS FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. SLY WND
FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ESPECIALLY WRN MN WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 353 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008/

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THE WI CWA
TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT
WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MINNESOTA BY EVENING.
TRIMMED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

PW INCREASES DRAMATICALLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NAM
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO EASTERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE GFS
AND ECMWF. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN
THE EASTERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS HELD TO THE WESTERN CWA.

LIKELY POPS THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH INTO THE FA. DESCENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERE STORMS MUCH BETTER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHERE A
SECOND AND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAKE
SHAPE.

THIS SECOND LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. HAVE INDICATED THE RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS OF
MINNESOTA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE -2 TO -4 DEG C
RANGE. THE 1.5 PV BOOT FORECAST BY THE GFS IS SUBSTANTIAL FOR
FRIDAY WHICH MAKES THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW BELIEVABLE.

THE FUN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF HERE AND DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ADJUSTED LOW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BY QUITE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHERLY AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -4 TO -8 DEG C RANGE. AS A
RESULT...INDICATED A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

RAH/DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1122 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
231630-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1122 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT SWEEP EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO BECOME SEVERE. CHECK BACK FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TDK