Winter Storm in New York, February 12 to 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
153 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PART OF IT REMAINING RIDGED DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
SOUTH TODAY...AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION
BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TRI-STATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOLID ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FROM HIGH TRANSITING OVERHEAD LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND
950 MB AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE (USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND LAV HOURLY
TEMPERATURES FOR HOURLY TEMPS AND TO DERIVE HIGHS FOR TODAY). WITH
PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND MOISTURE STREAMING IN AT ALL
LEVELS...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBS/SAT/RAD/MOD TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY LIKE SREF HANDLING OF LOW TRACK...NAM LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (THOUGH THEY MAY NOT BE COLD
ENOUGH NEAR THE SURFACE AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AND THAT A ALL BUT MET GUIDANCE IS UNDER CUTTING THEM
AT THE SURFACE...SO FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR
HOURLY TEMPERATURES. WHAT HAS WORKED BEST SO FAR THIS WINTER FOR
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...WITH COLD AIR DAMMING PRESENT
HAS BEEN THE RUC13 2M TEMPERATURE...BUT THAT MODEL ONLY GOES OUT
12 HOURS...SO COULD NOT USE FOR THIS FORECAST)...AND A BLEND OF
NAM/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF FOR QPF.

ENOUGH COLD AIR DOES NOT WORK ITS WAY IN ALOFT TO CHANGE
PRECIPITATION FROM ALL SNOW UNTIL JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...FORTUNATELY BEST FRONTOGENIC AND ISENTROPIC FORCING
DOES NOT COME IN UNTIL AFTER THEN (EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NW)...SO SNOW
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SUB WARNING
AMOUNTS...AND SUB ADVISORY AMOUNTS OVER THE CITY AND LONG ISLAND.
COULD ACTUALLY END UP WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGING
TO FREEZING RAIN...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS...SO OPTED TO
REFLECT A BIT MORE FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. RESULT IS UPPED
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING OVER ORANGE AND
WESTERN PASSAIC (2-5 SNOW AND AROUND 1/2 INCH OF
ICE)...ESPECIALLY WHEN NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. WENT WITH AN ADVISORY EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT NYC
AND LONG ISLAND...WHERE JUST DO NOT HAVE 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN
A GLAZE OF ICE. BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IN THE NON ADVISORY AREA IS
ACROSS THE BRONX AND NORTHERN MANHATTAN...DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY. CAME CLOSE TO ISSUING WARNING FOR
PUTNAM...BUT JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS...THAT
PLAYED AS SOLID ADVISORY...THOUGH COULD BE UPGRADED BY DAY SHIFT IF
IT IS FELT THAT A HALF AN INCH OF ICE COULD BE REACHED.

WARM AIR SHOULD WIN THE RACE ULTIMATELY AND CHANGE ALL PRECIP TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING (NW)...AND EVEN SOONER ELSEWHERE (THOUGH MIGHT
BE A BIT TO FAST IN PUTNAM) WITH RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...EASTERN
SUFFOLK WILL BE THE FIRST TO CHANGE OVER...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS
GOING OVER SE TO NW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NOT ADDRESSED IN THE ZONES (BUT WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO)...IS
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY (NOTE
STRONG OCEANIC INFLOW WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FRONTOGENIC FORCING (ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN ZONES). SEE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.

GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN IT DEVELOPING A TERTIARY COASTAL
LOW...THAT IT HAS BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE THROWN OUT...AND WENT WITH SREF LED
CONSENSUS IDEA OF THINGS DRYING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PULLS AWAY. WILL BE A BIT OF WIND
WITH THE SYSTEM...THOUGH SHOULD EB BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR NOW GOING WITH DRY FORECAST THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE TIME TO EVALUATE THE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT...BUT FROM WHAT I
SAW...FORECAST SEEMED IN GENERAL ON TRACK...SO ONLY CHANGES MADE IN
GRIDS WERE TO IMPROVE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OFFICES. PREVIOUS LONG
TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS (WITH REFERENCES TO THURSDAY (DURING THE
DAY) REMOVED)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENSURE PLENTY OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TRACK...WE OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE BETWEEN HPC GRIDS AND GMOS WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SE 5 TO
10 KT AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST OF THE TERMINALS.

IFR VSBY/LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS AS
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WORKS NE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT MVFR CONDS
IN LIGHT SNOW TO WORK EAST INTO EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z AND
22Z.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DROPPING TO IFR AND LOWER THIS EVENING THROUGH
WED. AT THE ONSET...PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. PTYPE BECOMES
PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SURGES
NORTHWARD. FOR KNYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS...WILL EXPECT A PERIOD
OF SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET THROUGH ABOUT 04Z...THEREAFTER
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN.

INLAND TERMINALS WILL BE MOST PROBLEMATIC. KSWF AND KHPN WILL START
OUT AS SNOW...MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER 03Z. FOR
KSWF...THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...CHANGING
OVER WED MORNING. PRECIP AT KHPN SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN
BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z.

LIFR CONDITIONS IN RA...HEAVY AT TIMES...EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. FZRA AT KSWF.

50+ 2KFT LLJ KT WORKS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING...CREATING SOME LLWS ISSUES.

SE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL
BECOME TRICKY LATE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS. MOST
LIKELY IT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND THEN SLIDE NW AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS TO THE S
AND E OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND TO THE N AND E OF THE
FRONT IT WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY. BEST GUESS RIGHT KNOW IS THAT
KWSF WILL HAVE N/NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AND THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE SOUTHERLY...BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE ADJUSTED AS TIMING NEARS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN ENDS AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W TO E LATE WED NIGHT. VFR THEN IN
PLACE THU/FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS.

A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO THU AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS...PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VLY TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...WHILE ITS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST OF THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM....SE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
BUILDING. BY 12Z WED...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 FT TO 10 FT
ON THE OCEAN AND 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS LI SOUND.

THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS AROUND 12Z WED...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 18Z. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
WED MORNING REACHES 60 KT...BUT THE LOW-LEVELS BECOME STRONGLY
INVERTED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND
GUSTS FROM REACHING GALE CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH
AFTER 12Z WED FOR NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN SOUND TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE WELL ABOVE 5 FT.

COLD ADVECTION WED NIGHT WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA ON
ALL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS THU AFT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA FRI EVE WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO FOLLOW ON SAT
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 1-2 INCHES (WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS) CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WILL AT LEAST CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND COULD ALSO CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES OVER AREAS WITH A SIGNIFICANT ICE COATING (WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO GET TO 40 OVER THE NW ON WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE LIMITED MELTING OF THE ICE...SO ALL RAIN WILL
RUNOFF...AND OVER EASTERN AREAS...WHERE THERE IS THE SIGNAL OF
POSSIBLE BANDING (STRONG FRONTOGENIC FORCING IN FAVORED NW
QUADRANT OF COASTAL LOW) THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. WILL REFLECT CONCERNS IN HWO.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ005>012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ068>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ069>071.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ068.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ003>006-011.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ003>006-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
643 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

NJZ002-NYZ067-131145-
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
643 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/NYC ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/NYC ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH
AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF ICE OVER TOP OF SNOW...THIS WILL CREATE A
NON-POROUS SURFACE THAT WILL PROMOTE THE RUNOFF OF THIS
RAINFALL...AND CREATE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...IF NOT AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY TO REPORT SNOW...ICE...AND RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS...AS
WELL AS ANY FLOODING OR DAMAGE DUE TO ICING.

NYZ068-131145-
PUTNAM-
643 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/NYC ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/NYC ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE COLD AIR COULD LINGER AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS A LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IF THIS
HAPPENS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING WARNING CRITERIA FOR ICE
ACCRETION INCREASES...AND THE ADVISORY WOULD HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO
A WINTER STORM WARNING...IF THIS POTENTIAL BEARS OUT.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE OVER TOP OF SNOW...THIS WILL
CREATE A NON- POROUS SURFACE THAT WILL PROMOTE THE RUNOFF OF THIS
RAINFALL...AND CREATE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...IF NOT AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY TO REPORT SNOW...ICE...AND RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS...AS
WELL AS ANY FLOODING OR DAMAGE DUE TO ICING.

CTZ005>012-NJZ003>006-011-NYZ069>071-131145-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
643 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV/NYC ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL...AND
CREATE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...IF NOT
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. OF GREATEST CONCERNS ARE THOSE AREAS THAT
END UP WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF ICE...THIS WILL HELP TO
PROMOTE MORE RUNOFF THAN USUAL. IN ADDITION...EASTERN CONNECTICUT
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...AS THE POTENTIAL
STORM EVOLUTION PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY TO REPORT SNOW...ICE...AND RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS...AS
WELL AS ANY FLOODING OR DAMAGE DUE TO ICING.

NYZ072-073-131145-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
643 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATING
BY EVENING...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE MIXING
WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SLEET. ALL TOLD FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT MORE
THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO A GLAZE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
IF THIS POTENTIAL IS ASSESSED AS MORE LIKELY...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL...AND
CREATE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...IF NOT
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY TO REPORT SNOW AND RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS...AS WELL AS
ANY ICING OR FLOODING.

NYZ074>081-131145-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
643 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATING
BY EVENING...AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE MIXING
WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SLEET. ALL TOLD UP TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. IF THIS POSSIBILITY
IS ASSESSED TO BECOME MORE LIKELY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FREEZING RAIN COULD BECOME.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BEFORE THE MORNING RUSH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OF RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL...AND
CREATE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...IF NOT
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...LONG ISLAND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN...AS THE POTENTIAL STORM
EVOLUTION PLACES THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY TO REPORT SNOW AND RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS...AS WELL AS
ANY ICING OR FLOODING.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-131145-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
643 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MALOIT