High Wind in New Mexico, May 23, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
238 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CELLS
CONTAINING PEA SIZE HAIL.  GUSTY WINDS ALSO MIXING TO THE SURFACE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT WIND
HEADLINES AS IS WITH BEST WINDS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.  CLOUD
COVER HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT BREAK UP IN THE WEST...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A BIT AND RAISING SNOW LEVELS. WHILE I DO
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS THERE DUE TO INSTABILITY PRESENT
UNDER COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL SNOW ADVISORY PRIOR
TO 5 PM AS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MORE APT TO PRODUCE SLEET IN QUICK
BURSTS RATHER THAN ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOBE OF VORTICITY NEAREST TO NM AT
SOUTHEAST END OF ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES.
THIS LOBE APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NORTH WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
PRECIP NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNSHINE SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERAL MIXING OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS
TO SURFACE...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST WHERE LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE SPEEDS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT
WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCURSION FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  COULD SEE LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT THERE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.  WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS FOR A SHARP
DRY LINE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS SHOWING LIFTED INDICES OF -6 AT 18Z SUNDAY WITH
DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR.

THE OSCILLATION OF THE DRY LINE AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO OR CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL LATE MAY
LEVELS...KD

&&

.AVIATION...
SPOTTY STRONG WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES WILL BE
AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY GUP...SAF...ABQ...LVS AND FMN. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE LESS CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SPOT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY STILL AFFECT THE FAR
WEST ON SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO THE TEXAS
BORDER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LET THE RED FLAG
WARNING RIDE THROUGH 8 PM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MAKING A MOVE TO THE WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BOTH
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP ACCORDINGLY WITH 1 TO 3
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CHUPADERA MESA AND ALONG STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN
LAS VEGAS AND RATON. A LONGER DURATION EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

ON SUNDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD
WHILE A DRY LINE SLOSHES IN FROM TEXAS. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND GUT INSTINCT SAYS THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THIS
MEANS THAT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE SOME STRONGER
STORMS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PIN
POINT AN AREA TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT IT
APPEARS THAT 2 TO 4 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD AFFECT THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RATON AND SOCORRO AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 1 TO 2 HOURS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SAN
AGUSTIN PLAIN AS WELL AS AREAS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE
SUCH AS ALONG A LINE FROM SANTA ROSA TO ROY.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEING DRIER AND
WARMER. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN A BIT BUT THE
NORMAL AFTERNOON MAY BREEZES WILL MOST LIKELY STILL REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  66  42  80 /  70  20  10   0
GALLUP..........................  33  64  36  75 /  70  10  10   0
GRANTS..........................  32  69  36  80 /  60  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  40  75  45  85 /  40  10   5   0
CHAMA...........................  28  60  31  71 /  50  20   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  65  39  76 /  50   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  26  59  30  68 /  30   5   0   5
TAOS............................  33  70  37  81 /  40   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  36  68  44  79 /  40   5   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  38  71  43  81 /  40   5   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  41  74  43  85 /  40   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  76  53  84 /  40   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  78  46  85 /  40   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  43  75  48  83 /  40   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  40  76  50  86 /  40   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  45  79  50  87 /  30   5   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  70  40  78 /  40   5   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  40  71  44  80 /  30   5   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  82  50  87 /  10   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  41  74  44  79 /  10   5   5   5
RATON...........................  35  75  41  83 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  38  73  43  81 /  20   5   0   0
ROY.............................  43  73  49  79 /  10   5   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  47  82  53  88 /  10   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  46  81  51  88 /  10   5   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  87  57  91 /   5   5  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  84  57  90 /   5   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  50  88  57  90 /   5   5  10  20
PORTALES........................  51  88  58  92 /   5   5  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  54  91  60  93 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ005>007-011-012-016-017-026.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004-010-013-015-018>021.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

19/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TO REMOVE HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
410 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

NMZ001>021-026-241200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
410 PM MDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT FOR THE EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WIND
DAMAGE...OR WILDFIRES THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.