High Wind in Alaska, May 23, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS. ALL MODELS BUILD A
RIDGE ALONG 150W FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL ALASKA TROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A STRONG 988 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEST
OF COLD BAY. THIS LOW IS MOVING NORTH ALONG 170W AND IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. THIS STORM IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND RAIN TO THE EASTERN
BERING AND THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW IS MOVING NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN SAT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
A FRONT MOVING NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IS BRINGING
RAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLY TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AND COASTAL AREAS.
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH GAPS IN THE CHUGACH WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL DRYING
OUT BY LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UP COOK INLET THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVELS WILL
BE RELATIVELY DRY.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WILL BRING A
QUICK RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN COMES MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WITH DRYING AND CLEARING AREAWIDE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
AREAS OF RAIN AND LOCALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MAINLAND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT.  NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED CLOUDS AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN ARE MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS WEST OF
COLD BAY.  THIS LOW IS MOVING NORTH TO THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL WEAKEN. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW WILL
FALL AS RAIN...THE AIR WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
LOW FOR SOME WET SNOW IN THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL ONLY BE GRAZED BY THIS
SYSTEM WITH JUST SHOWER ACTIVITY AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE BERING
STRAIT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAINLAND NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP. RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR
THE BERING/ALEUTIANS AS LOW PRESSURE SETS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 160 165 180 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH MAY 08