Flash Flood in New Mexico, June 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING INTO MOISTURE RECYCLE MODE TONIGHT OR AT LATEST TUE AS
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRETTY MUCH
DONE. STORMS THIS AFTN ARE SLOWER MOVING THAN WAS THE CASE
SUN...SOME EVEN BEING STATIONARY. CONSIDERING ISSUING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NW HALF OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING.
BUT MOST OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS ARE EITHER WEAKENING
BEFORE DUMPING ANOUGH WATER TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODING OR
PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE PARENT STORM. WILL STILL LEAVE THIS OPEN
FOR A LAST MINUTE ISSUANCE...BUT UNLIKELY DUE MAINLY TO
AFOREMENTIONED STORM TRENDS. AMONG THE BIG FACTORS IN T STORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM ABOUT THIS POINT FORWARD INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ANY
COLD POOLS AND WEAK CIRCULATIONS/VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT DEVELOP ON
THE E/SE SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH LOOKS TO MORE OR LESS
ANCHOR ITSELF NEAR TO A LITTLE WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. OF COURSE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ANY PRE EXISTING
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL BE MAJOR FACTORS AS WELL.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE DRYING OVER AND NEAR
THE NW PLATEAU BETWEEN TUE AND WED...BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE POPS
ENTIRELY FOR THAT AREA. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT BETWEEN THU AND FRI...BUT GFS AND NAM
MODELS ESPECIALLY NOT AS BULLISH ON THE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THAT PUSH. 43

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UT AND AZ BORDER...SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OR BUILD SOUTH...SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHEAST
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM TOPS WILL MOSTLY REACH 35K TO 45K FT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NM...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY TUE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AIRPORTS RANGING
FROM RTN TO LVS...AXX...SKX...SAF...LAM...FMN AND GUP.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE UT
AND AZ BORDER...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OR BUILD SOUTH...SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AND EXPAND TOWARD ALBUQUERQUE BY WEDNESDAY....SO LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LESS RAIN EACH DAY.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COOL
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED.  THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE ON THE NE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE NE HIGHLANDS BEFORE
STALLING. THE SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DEFINITE UPTICK IN MOIST CONVECTION
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A 20 TO 40 MPH EAST
WIND MAY ALSO DEVELOP BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

44

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  60  95  61  96 /  20  10  20  10
GALLUP..........................  53  88  52  91 /  20  20  20  10
GRANTS..........................  54  86  53  90 /  30  20  30  10
GLENWOOD........................  61  93  60  94 /  20  20  30  10
CHAMA...........................  46  81  45  83 /  40  30  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  84  53  88 /  30  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  42  74  41  77 /  30  30  20  30
TAOS............................  50  84  48  87 /  30  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  54  84  54  89 /  30  20  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  86  56  90 /  30  20  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  56  89  56  93 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  89  66  93 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  90  63  94 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  87  62  92 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  91  64  95 /  20  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  61  91  63  93 /  20  20  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  81  55  86 /  20  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  85  56  89 /  20  20  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  86  60  89 /  20  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  53  80  53  81 /  20  20  20  20
RATON...........................  53  85  53  86 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  83  52  85 /  20  20  20  30
ROY.............................  58  83  59  87 /  10  10  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  61  91  63  91 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  59  90  60  93 /  20  10  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  93  65  95 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  91  65  93 /  10  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  63  92  64  93 /   5   5  10  10
PORTALES........................  64  91  65  93 /   5   5  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  65  92  67  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1243 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2008

UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CHANCE FOR CATRON COUNTY.

NMZ001>021-026-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
1243 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF CATRON COUNTY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE COULD
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME OR PENNY SIZE AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND
60 MPH.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING OF
ARROYOS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SUBMIT ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.