Damaging Winds in Massachusetts, June 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1041 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
AND PROBABLY INTO TUESDAY AS WELL. DRY AND WARM WEATHER SHOULD
FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS FAR
OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1035 PM QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS IN WESTERN ZONES STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 3 AM...BASED ON THE APPROACH OF THE SHOWERS ENTERING
THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NY.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM BRIDGEPORT TO JUST EAST
OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SPRINGFIELD CELLS WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE BRIDGEPORT CELL WILL MOVE
THROUGH WILLIMANTIC AROUND 1130 PM AND PASS SOUTH OF WORCESTER 1230
TO 100 AM. THE BRIDGEPORT CELL IS MOVING ALONG THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM
THTA E AND IN AN AREA OF -2 LI/S...AND WILL BEAR WATCHING.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NYS
MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS APPROACHES THE MASS/NY STATE BORDER AROUND
1130-MIDNIGHT. THAT AREA HAS STABILIZED WITH LI AROUND +4 SOUTHWEST
OF ALB. MUCH OF THIS WILL SLIDE INTO VT/NH/MAINE OVERNIGHT. OTHER
STORMS IN EASTERN PA AND DELMARVA MOVING NORTHEAST MAY REACH US LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 3 AM.

STRATUS AND SOME FOG SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. AS FAR AS POPS
FOR...WENT WITH A CHANCE OVER EASTERN MASS/RI WITH LOW LIKELY WESTERN
ZONES. ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT PERHAPS
OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE IT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL THEME FROM TODAY
WILL REMAIN THE SAME ON MONDAY...BROAD SW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WEAKLY
TO MODERATELY. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY
ARE TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AND A SFC TROF WILL
APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE.
OTHERWISE...MAV MOS GENERALLY ACCEPTED FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL
CONTINUE IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. ITS ALWAYS TOUGH TO
PINPOINT IF ELEVATED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THIS SITUATION. HOWEVER...WITH WARM ADVECTION...IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS. REGARDLESS...AREAS OF FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FORM WITH THE LOW
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE MOIST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
60S.

TUESDAY...
ANY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO APPROACH
OUR REGION AND STEEPEN OUR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SINCE WE SHOULD BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUMP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
RATHER WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  IT SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE IT STALLS. FOR NOW WILL JUST
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THIS PERIOD UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AID IN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO EASTERN MASS/RHODE ISLAND
OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

ANY CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING LEAVING
BEHIND HIGH-END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE
AGAIN REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SURFACE TROF NEARS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TIMES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL ALSO
BE INTER-MIXED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING SEASON ON THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7
FEET. WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO BE OVERDONE BY A FOOT OR TWO. WINDS
GUSTS WILL BE VERY MARGINAL BUT COULD TOUCH 25 KT AT TIMES.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FOR THE SOUTH FACING
BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR...AND RESULTANT FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EKSTER
MARINE...BELK/EKSTER
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
812 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>005-301200-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
812 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT
NOT UNTIL AFTER 11PM OR MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS BECOME SEVERE...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF INSULATION WE RECEIVE
WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-301200-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
812 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
WATERS AFTER 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY AFFECT THE WATERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MAZ020>024-RIZ006>008-301200-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
812 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS
AFTER 2 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1138 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>011-NHZ011-300500-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE
MA-HARTFORD CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN
MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WINDHAM CT-
1138 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH 1 AM...

AT 1133 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES WEST OF MONROE TO 34 MILES
WEST OF BRISTOL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF
TROY TO 4 MILES NORTH OF PAWLING...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...WORTHINGTON...TOLLAND...ROWE AND
PLAINFIELD BY 1210 AM EDT...RUSSELL...HUNTINGTON...HEATH AND HAWLEY
BY 1220 AM EDT...WILLIAMSBURG AND WESTHAMPTON BY 1230 AM EDT.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1214 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-NHZ011-300515-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE
MA-HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN
MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
1214 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

AT 1210 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH
OF MONROE TO 8 MILES WEST OF TOLLAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
10 MILES EAST OF BENNINGTON TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREAT
BARRINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 46 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...WORTHINGTON AND TOLLAND BY 1220 AM
EDT...WESTHAMPTON AND SHELBURNE BY 1230 AM EDT...WESTMORELAND AND
SUFFIELD BY 1240 AM EDT...KEENE AND WINCHESTER BY 1250 AM EDT...KEENE
AND SOMERS BY 100 AM EDT.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1247 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

CTZ002-300545-
HARTFORD CT-
1247 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

AT 1242 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 4 MILES WEST OF BURLINGTON...OR ABOUT 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TORRINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...CANTON AND AVON BY 100 AM EDT...
SIMSBURY AND BLOOMFIELD BY 110 AM EDT...WINDSOR LOCKS AND EAST GRANBY
BY 120 AM EDT...SUFFIELD BY 130 AM EDT.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

FRANK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

CTZ002-003-MAZ009>011-300600-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND
CT-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
110 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

AT 106 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SIMSBURY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST
HARTFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...WINDSOR LOCKS AND EAST GRANBY BY 120
AM EDT...ENFIELD AND SUFFIELD BY 130 AM EDT...SOMERS AND LONGMEADOW
BY 140 AM EDT...HAMPDEN AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF STAFFORD SPRINGS BY
150 AM EDT.

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

FRANK