Hail and Damaging Winds in New Mexico, June 27 to 28, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
137 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND
ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFTS TO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE EAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. LOOK FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY COOL TO NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THE INCREASED HUMIDITY MAY MAKE SEEM JUST AS
HOT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTICALLY NOTHING HAS CHANGED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS JUST
TO OUR SOUTH. UNDER THIS HIGH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED OVER THE AREA. STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SURFACE HEATING AND POSSIBLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS FROM OUTSIDE OF THE CWFA TO DESTABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT AND TRIGGER CONVECTION. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING...AND SCATTERED OVER SOME AREAS. AS WITH DAYS
PAST THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY. THIS WILL FOSTER MICROBURST
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VSBYS.

TOMORROW MIGHT SEE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. MODELS
INDICATE SOME DRYING AS LOW AND MID FLOW BECOMES NW. DONT BELIEVE
WE WILL DRY OUT ENOUGH TO SQUELCH STORMS SO POPS WILL REMAIN.

LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A BACK DOOR LOW LEVEL PUSH WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE E/NE. ALOFT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER N AND W.
THIS WILL PUT US UNDER A DEEP E/SE FLOW AND HELP TO IMPORT
HEALTHIER LEVELS OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWFA. INCREASED STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THIS PATTERN.
INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BEGIN A TRANSITION WHERE THE UPPER HIGH CENTERS
BACK OVER THE AREA. SOME DRYING AND SOME WARMING ARE EXPECTED.
STILL LOOK TO KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT THE MENTIONS OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN/EVE STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLDS ABOVE 7K FT AGL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MAINLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR BUILDUPS...BKN070 AGL 4SM BLDU -TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE STILL IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF DRY LIGHTNING MAINLY
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO LATE FRI AFTN/EVENING. FIRE DANGER
REMAINS HIGH A FEW AREAS OF VERY HIGHT. OVERALL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REPOSITION STARTING SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE EAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND FURTHER LESSEN THE FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  98  73  95  71 /  20  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA TX        68  97  66  91  64 /  20  30  20  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  98  71  95  68 /  20  10  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  96  66  91  65 /  20  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  74  48  69  46 /  30  30  30  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  95  68  93  64 /  20  10  20  30  30
SILVER CITY             56  91  58  86  58 /  20  20  20  30  30
DEMING                  70  97  68  95  65 /  20  10  10  30  30
LORDSBURG               70  98  69  96  65 /  20  10  20  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14 / 20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
345 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2008

NMZ022-023-031-032-280100-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES
REGION-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-SOUTHERN DESERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR
CONSEQUENCES...DEMING...
345 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CREATE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

AT 345 PM MDT THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THE GILA REGION AND
OVER THE BLACK RANGE OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL ONCE AGAIN
ALLOW STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO FORM WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 55 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS
NEAR STORMS AND MAY RESULT IN BLOWING DUST SHARPLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES OVER LOWLAND ROADS.

MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO STAY ALERT NEAR STORM AREAS AS VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP RAPIDLY TO BELOW 1 MILE IN BLOWING DUST.

MACBLAIN