High Wind in New Mexico, December 23, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
312 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY PROMPTING THE
ISSUANCE OF HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS TODAY BRINGING HIGH WINDS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF MOISTURE
IS ALSO MOVING IN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND A FEW
DESERT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE GILA WILDERNESS WHERE A SNOW
ADVISORY IS POSTED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
SEASONABLY MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
CHRISTMAS DAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN. ONCE
AGAIN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWS. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA CHRISTMAS
NIGHT AND FRIDAY PROVIDING SLIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
AREA AND MORE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY. FINALLY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. AND IN
PARTICULAR THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL STORMS SYSTEMS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING. THIS UPPER TROUGH HAS
MOVED OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE CWFA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
SWATH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH STREAMING OVER THE
CWFA. NICE DYNAMICS WITH A JET MAX AND PVA SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SNOW
LEVELS STILL KIND OF HIGH...ABOVE 7KFT MSL. THE GFS/NAM MODELS
INDICATED POTENTIAL 24HR SNOWFALL OF 6-10 INCHES OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE GILA TODAY 06Z-06Z. WE HAVE A SNOW ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR THE GILA. THE SECOND CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AFFECT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE JET MOVES OVER ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS OVER NE NM AND PROVIDES A 10-13 MB
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL AVE WINDS AROUND
70KTS AND LOW-LEVEL AVE WINDS OF 40-50KTS. WINDS ARE ALIGNED. SO
STRONG SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE AT LEAST AT HIGH END
ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD VERIFY A HIGH WIND
WARNING. MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY...BUT MARGINAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

CURRENT MODEL RUN SHOW WEDNESDAY TO BE SEASONALLY MILD...DRY...AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WHICH IS QUICKLY
PASSING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THURSDAY...CHRISTMAS DAY...THE LATEST MODELS NOW SHOW THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE TRAJECTORY PUTS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE CWFA. THUS MOISTURE WILL BE
FOCUSED NORTH OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. HOWEVER THIS ALSO PUTS THE
REGION WITHIN THE SYSTEMS STRONGEST WIND. SO ANOTHER WINDY DAY FOR
CHRISTMAS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS SHOULD HAVE A DRY CHRISTMAS.

THE CHRISTMAS TROUGH IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. ANY LATE DAY
PCPN WILL FALL IN THE COOLER AIR LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BELOW 5000FT.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PUSHES FROM THE
NORTH. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND COOL UNDER A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/1200Z-24/1200Z...
ANOTHER STRONG COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD POSITIONING VERY STRONG
POLAR JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SKY/WX: SOUTH OF A DMN-ALM LINE SCT 10K-15K BKN-OVC
20-25K AGL TIL 18Z THEN SCT 5K-8K AGL BKN ABV 10K AGL WITH ISOLD
-SHRA BKN 6K AL. NORTH OF A DMN-ALM LINE SCT LOW ELV -SHRA AND
HIGH ELV -SHSN ABOVE 7K MSL WITH MVFR TO LCL IFR IN SHOWERS. LGT
TO MDT RME/MXD ICICIP ABOVE 7K MSL DROPPING TO 6K MSL BY 24/00Z.
AREA WIDE AFT 16Z SFC WIND INCREASING 240/ 30 TO 40 KT G 50+KT AND
MTN TOP WINDS 260/60-70 KT WITH FQT MDT TO SVR TURBC OVR/NR MTNS
ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES. AREAS VSBY 3SM BLDU DESERTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA REMAINS
LOCKED IN TO A CONTINUED SERIES OF STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE FIRE ZONES PRODUCING ISOLATED
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED HIGH ELV SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GILA WILDERNESS TODAY MAY SEE
SOME 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT ELV WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM
PATTERN IS BRINING DOWN VERY HIGH VELOCITY POLAR JET STREAM WINDS
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE GILA REGION AND SIERRA COUNTY...WHILE A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR REST OF THE REGION FROM MID-DAY TODAY INTO THE
EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO EAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTING 50 TO 60
MPH ESPLY EAST SLOPES AND PASSES. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS OF 65-75 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS
TO SAY VENTILATION WILL BE EXCELLENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME ON
WED AND THURS WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS THEN ANOTHER MDT TO
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE TOWARD THE BORDERLAND BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE STRONG WINDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE CALMER...DRIER...AND MORE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  41  57  38  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        60  36  58  37  58 /  10  10  10   0  10
LAS CRUCES              60  36  56  36  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              58  33  54  34  57 /  20  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              44  21  39  23  43 /  40  20  10  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   55  33  52  32  57 /  30  10  10  20  10
SILVER CITY             50  27  47  27  52 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  57  34  54  35  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               56  32  53  33  56 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ022.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING
     FOR NMZ022-023.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ024-025-030>032.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

14/BIRD