High Wind in New Mexico, December 18, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MST THU DEC 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AN AWFUL LOT TO CONSIDER FOR 1ST PERIOD...WINDS...SNOW VS
RAIN...SNOW LEVELS...STRONG PACIFIC FRONT...HOW FAST PCPN WILL
WIND DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH THE ACCELERATION OF THE
MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT PCPN AMTS. THESE DONT COVER ALL THE
FACTORS TO CONSIDER...BUT MOST OF THE MAIN POINTS. AFTER SOME MUCH
APPRECIATED SIGNIFICANT AID AND ANALYSIS GIVEN BY MY PARTNERS HERE
EARLY THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO
WIND AND WINTER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THOSE MADE BY PREVIOUS SHIFT.
MAINLY THEY INCLUDE REMOVING MID RIO GRANDE ZONE...ZONE 9...FROM
EARLIER WINTER WX ADVISORY SINCE TEMPS LOOK TO BE TOO WARM TO
ALLOW MUCH ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS. PCPN SHOULD START
AS RAIN THERE THEN LIKELY TURN TO SNOW PELLETS IN VICINITY OR NOT
LONG AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
RATHER SHORT LIVED...SMALL...ABOVE FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS...MORE
SO VEGETATION THAN ROADS...BUT LIKELY TO BE AN INCH OR LESS MOST
OF THE ZONE. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THOUGH AND SHOULD LESSEN ACCUM
SLIGHTLY. SIMILAR REASONING FOR ZONE 3 EXCEPT FOR LESS RAIN AND
MORE SNOW AND A LIITLE MORE PCPN OVERALL THAN IN 9. JUST ENOUGH
ACCUM TO ALLOW FOR ADVISORY. ZONES 16 AND 17 REMOVED FROM WINTER
WX ADVISORY AND CHANGED TO WIND ADVISORY AS WIND LOOKS TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE DAY...THOUGH SOME SMALL SNOW ACCUM
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ABOVE 7500 OR 8000 FT AND LOCALLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF QUESTION NEAR AND ABOVE 9500 WHICH
MEANS MAINLY VCNTY OF SIERRA BLANCA PEAK.

ONLY A FEW SLIGHT TWEAKS TO REST OF FCST AS IT IS FAIRLY WELL
SUPPORTED BY NEW MODEL RUNS.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WRN NM THIS MORNING AS SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IMPACT THE REGION. CIGS/VIS WILL BE IFR IN
NATURE. AS THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NM. PCPN WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY.
WINDS WILL BE A BIGGER FACTOR TODAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 45KTS COMMON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. PCPN WILL START TO DISSIPATE AROUND 00Z WITH ONLY
A FEW LINGERING HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH FROM 00Z-06Z.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY SUNSET EXCLUDING THE NRN AND CENTRAL
RIDGETOPS AND ALONG THE RESPECTIVE ERN SLOPES.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. DPORTER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FINAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
PCPN WILL IMPACT WRN NM THIS MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO BY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER/WARMER THAN EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD PROJECTED. NONETHELESS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE STILL
LIKELY IN THE NRN AND WRN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MIX
WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
A FACTOR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SPEEDS OF 15-30KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45KTS COMMON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. HUMIDITIES IN THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TODAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL WANE THIS EVENING WITH EXCELLENT/MODERATE RECOVERIES FROM WEST/
EAST RESPECTIVELY.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES COULD APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO ALLOW FOR AN HOUR
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS. WILL INSERT A BRIEF MENTION IN THE FWF. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL CLIP NRN NM FRI NIGHT/SAT. IT
APPEARS LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL IN THE NRN MTS. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR
AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
NEARING THE 15 PERCENT BARRIER. ATTM...PROJECTING AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PLAGUE THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

DPORTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  21  38  22 /  70  20   5  10
GALLUP..........................  40  15  40  14 /  90  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  47  12  44  14 /  80   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  50  22  53  21 /  80   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  35   6  33   4 /  90  40   0  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  16  38  15 /  70  20   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  35   8  36   6 /  90  30   0  20
TAOS............................  41  10  37  11 /  80  20   0  10
SANTA FE........................  42  19  42  21 /  70  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  21  42  21 /  70  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  48  16  44  13 /  70  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  28  47  27 /  60   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  53  21  48  20 /  60   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  24  44  22 /  60   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  53  23  50  23 /  60   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  58  20  52  22 /  50   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  20  44  16 /  70   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  22  45  18 /  60   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  22  53  24 /  40   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  52  25  53  26 /  40   0   0   0
RATON...........................  46  17  44  17 /  30   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  22  45  21 /  40   5   0   0
ROY.............................  48  27  49  25 /  20   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  56  25  52  25 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  58  28  58  27 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  30  59  31 /  20   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  26  63  25 /  20   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  62  30  59  33 /  20   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  66  27  61  31 /  20   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  67  32  65  35 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ003-005-010-011.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-002-004-008.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ006-007-009-012-013-015>021-026.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ014.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
615 AM MST THU DEC 18 2008

CORRECTION TO ADD MENTION OF LINCOLN COUNTY IN THE WIND ADVISORY
AREA FOR TODAY.

NMZ001>021-026-191300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
615 AM MST THU DEC 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AS RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...CHANGING MOSTLY TO SNOW
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PLEASE READ THE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

THOUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL NOT RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT
DEGREE OF WINTER WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND LINCOLN COUNTY. PLEASE READ THE WIND ADVISORY ALSO ISSUED EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY SATURDAY ON
THE HIGHER RIDGES AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...MOST NOTABLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. GUSTY AND
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS
WELL DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS... WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637.

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MST THU DEC 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     SNOW             6 E TAOS                36.39N 105.47W
12/18/2008  E3.0 INCH        TAOS               NM   PUBLIC

1045 AM     SNOW             5 WNW SANDIA PARK       35.20N 106.45W
12/18/2008  M2.0 INCH        BERNALILLO         NM   PUBLIC

&&

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