High Wind in Nebraska, October 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN QUICK PROGRESS OF FRONT ACROSS DAKOTAS AROUND
00Z AND NOW THROUGH LBF CWA AT 08Z. BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS WITH FROPA
AND NOW THINGS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOME. THIS LULL WILL NOT LAST LONG
AS CAA THROUGH THE DAY...INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A STEEPENING
LAPSE RATE SHOULD LEAD TO UNIDIRECTION LLVL PROFILES AND STRONG
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO SFC. ONLY THING KEEPING ME FROM ISSUING HIGH
WIND WARNING IN THE NORTH IS THE LACK OF A TIGHTER PRESS GRAD.
GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT PROFILES HINT THAT VTN/ANW AND ONL COULD FLIRT
WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING ADV BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THAT HIGH SO HAVE
ISSUED ADV FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS CAN BE UPGRADED IF NECESSARY.
HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING IN THIS COOLER AIR HAD IT/S SOURCE IN
THE HIGH LATITUDES AND DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS DRY...COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND COLDEST NIGHT OF
FALL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. WITH SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND AND ALL
FREEZE/FROST DATES LONG GONE HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF FROST. TEMP
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 AND THIS MAY NOT
BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE LARGER VALLEYS AND DRAINAGES BUT
LOWERED QUITE A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO BE RECIRCULATED ON MONDAY AS AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTER TROF
PATTERN KEEPS HIGH BETWEEN CWA AND MO VALLEY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE NEXT FEW DAYS. GOOD WARMUP STILL ON TRACK AS WESTERN
RIDGE MOVES OVER ROCKIES AND BREAKS DOWN THROUGH MID-WEEK AND LEAVES
ZONAL FLOW. THIS IS GOOD FIRE WEATHER SIGNAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
TO POSSIBLY SET UP AND WILL BE MONITORED AS SUCH.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. LLWS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF WITH 12Z TAFS. KLNX VAD WIND
PROFILE AT 45KTS 4KFT AND 50KTS AT 5KFT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS THE INVERSION BREAKS MID MORNING 25 TO 35 MPH KLBF
AND 30 TO 40 MPH KVTN THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES....LBF
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>010-023>029-035>038-059-071-094.
&&

13/POWER

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