Hail in Nebraska, June 18 to 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
234 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...

H5 LOW LOCATED NEAR VANCOUVER WITH H5 HIGH OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. H5 LOW CENTERED OVER NEW YORK. NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT FORECAST
AREA DRIVING INTO WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN IR. ASSOCIATED
RADAR ECHOES FROM MOBRIDGE TO CUSTER TO CHEYENE AS SEEN IN NATIONAL
MOSIAC. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WITH TROUGH AXIS
FROME EASTERN WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST KS. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SOUTHEAST MT TO SOUTHERN IDAHO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS DIFFERING ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THIS EVENING.
ATMOSPHERE VOLATILE. PWS AROUND AN INCH OVER NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS.
NORTH PLATTES 12Z SOUNDING -8 WITH 3200 J/KG CAPES. LOOKS TO BE
EARLY SHOW CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT. THURSDAY TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WEDNESDAY WITH A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVER HEAD SYSTEMS TO BE SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTH.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DIVERGE
WITH SOLUTIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS A STRONG WAVE DRIVES
INTO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME AND AFTER
SHARPENING RIDGE WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
GFS FLATTENS SOME BUT RETAINS RIDGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

MYRIAD OF SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TIMING OF WAVES WILL BE
DIFFICULT ENOUGH IN THE NEAR TERM LET ALONE THE EXTENDED. WILL FOCUS
ON THE MAJOR SYSTEMS MONDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BE A BLEND BUT
TRENDING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR STORMS APPEARS TO COVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
03Z THAT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL
TO BELOW VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-056>059-069-070-094.

&&

KECK/POWER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1053 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-191000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1053 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008 /953 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...SUNSHINE
WILL BE PREVALENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...YIELDING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THIS SAME AREA...AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA TODAY
AS WELL...AND WILL FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...WHICH WILL HELP THUNDERSTORMS MORE READILY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER. INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
BECAUSE OF THAT...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
FRONT...DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN AN AREA FROM THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
COMBINE TO FORM AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS. ALSO...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COMPLEX EVOLVES
AND MOVES SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THIS UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO WANE SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JWS/KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1122 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 S NORTH PLATTE       40.96N 100.77W
06/17/2008  M59 MPH          LINCOLN            NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BTAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 NE HAYES CENTER      40.61N 100.89W
06/18/2008  E60 MPH          HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR