Tornado and Hail in Kansas, June 18, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
333 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
BOTH MODELS TODAY IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN CO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK GIVEN
20Z RADAR TRENDS. ALL MODELS ALSO INDICATE GOOD ENOUGH SHEAR AND
CAPES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT DEWPOINT APPEAR TO BE A
LITTLE LOW. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN HAZARD THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THE MODELS BEGIN TO FORM A MCS IN OUR NW CWA AND TRACKS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST 4KM WRF WAS EVEN
A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SO ALTHOUGH DO
EXPECT SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THE SPEED SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AT A MINIMUM. IN
ADDITION GIVEN THE LACK OF RAINS OVER OUR CNTL AND WESTERN CWA
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOT BE THINK ANY FFG WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED OVERNIGHT. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR NE BUT
EVEN HERE GIVEN THE SPEED OF THESE STORMS IT APPEARS FLOODING RISK
WILL BE MINIMAL. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN
HAZARD AFTER THIS MCS DEVELOPS SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION THE STRONG
WINDS ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

BY 12Z THURSDAY PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING IN OUR WESTERN CWA BUT NAM
SEEMS TO HOLD ON TO SOME LINGERING PCPN EARLY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE LIGHT AND ELEVATED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOK
LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE LATE THURSDAY AS OUR NEXT VORT LOBE
MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT LOW
POPS GOING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS AS OUR
NEXT VORT LOBE APPROACHES. AS FOR TEMPS SINCE AM FAVORING PCPN
ENDING EARLY WILL LEAN TOWARDS MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYS 3-7...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NOCTURNAL CLUSTERS.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP AFTERNOON FRONT RANGE ACTIVITY FROM
MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST.

WEAK WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY MONDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME STORM CLUSTERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CONUS
BY JULY 27-28. THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AVIATION SITES BETWEEN 00 AND 09 UTC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. UNTIL THE STORMS ARRIVE, VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  83  64  88 /  70  40  50  20
GCK  64  83  62  87 /  70  40  40  10
EHA  64  88  63  88 /  30  30  40  20
LBL  66  87  63  89 /  40  30  40  20
HYS  64  83  61  85 /  70  40  40  20
P28  67  86  66  85 /  70  40  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-191745-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1239 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008 /1139 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THESE
STORMS DEVELOP THE PRIMARY HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THESE STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND FORM INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH AND PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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