Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING PUSHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA STATELINE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD AS STRONG CAP INDICATED
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. AT 19Z THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLE WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM NEAR AIA TO OGA
AND IML. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED CELLS NEAR AIA AND IBM ATTM
WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION LIKELY AS SURFACE
HEATING HAS LED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WEST WITH OGA AND
IML AOB THE CENTURY MARK AT 2 PM. LAPS DATA SHOWS GREATEST
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE PANHANDLE WHILE LITTLE OR NO CAP EXISTS
FROM IBM NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY AT 19Z. NAM
RESEMBLES THE OBSERVED LAPS DATA WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST WITH 2D FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM 925 TO
700 MB ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THAT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT IN
ADDITION TO MID LEVEL WAVE NAM MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 35 TO 40
KNOTS THAT MAY ENHANCE LIFT TO TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING BEYOND
EVENING INTO THE NCNTRL OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW RAISED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NCNTRL WHERE BETTER CHANNELING AND CONVERGENCE OF
MOISTURE TO HELP FUEL STORM POTENTIAL.

OVERNIGHT MOISTURE DEEPENS EAST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS WITH
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW WHILE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT. THE MORE ZONAL
FLOW WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY EAST FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER RATIOS ARE AOB 1 INCH
WITH MODELS QPF GENERATING QPF BULLEYES FOR MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LONG RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM WHILE STRENGTHENING THE BERMUDA RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE INCREASING ZONAL
PATTERN BY THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE
NORTHWEST CONUS THAT WILL WEAKEN THE BERMUDA HIGH WITH THE MEAN FLOW
TO RESULT IN THE RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND TUESDAY
IN HOW ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM TO LIMIT POPS
AT THIS TIME WHILE TRENDING TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS /POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 25 KT/ WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD EAST DURING
THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE KVTN TERMINAL APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THIS ACTIVITY AFTER 22Z. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY 12Z
SUNDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHILE
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED FROM VALENTINE...SOUTH TO
OGALLALA. SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON EAST OF
THE TROUGH...WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING FROM 15-25 MPH WEST
OF THE TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE. RH VALUES WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH 15
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS...A DRY ENVIRONMENT...AND LIGHTNING
/WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING WITH THE PASSING STORMS/ MAY
CREATE LOCALLY ENHANCED CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH...AGAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A VALENTINE TO IMPERIAL
LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

GARNER/KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061700-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008 /1050 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF A
VALENTINE TO IMPERIAL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE NIGHT. DUE TO THE
HOT WELL MIXED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEB...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...EITHER IN THE
FORM OF DRY MICROBURSTS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA ON EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

GARNER