Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, July 5, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
311 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL
ND AND SD. KMVX CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPING STORMS IN CENTRAL
ND UP INTO S MB. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO ENDED UP USING A MODEL BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH MID LEVEL CAP STILL PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM GETTING
FULLY ORGANIZED YET. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOW LIFTED INDICES TO -8
AND A SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM EXTENDING THROUGH
CENTRAL INTO E ND. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
OVER THE AREA. THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT ON THE ON WV IMAGERY...MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND.
WITH SFC BASED CAPES UP TO 3000...SVR IS ANTICIPATED...WITH
EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IF THE CAP ERODES QUICKLY ENOUGH.
THEREFORE...KEPT SVR WORDING IN FORECAST...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SVR WEATHER THREATS.

THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY SUN MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE
SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH ON SUN...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
THEN FOR SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE N PLAINS...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SO WILL GO
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ATTM. MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING THE FA ON FRI. EXPECT A REBOUND OF
TEMPS AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
MORE -SHRA/-TSRA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH MENTION OF TSRA COINCIDING WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY BE ERRATIC IN VCNTY OF STRONGER
STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

NG/HOPKINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-061015-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTH DAKOTA FROM
SASKATCHEWAN...AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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