Montana, 2008Wildfire in Montana, July 19 to 23, 2008
July 19 to 23, 2008 · NWS TFX · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Very dry conditions and a lightning strike started a wildfire that burned over 500 acres.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Very dry conditions and a lightning strike started a wildfire that burned over 500 acres.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1055 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...DISTURBANCE THAT KICKED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY CWA IS MOVING OFF
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MAIN TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL TAKE IT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA OVERNIGHT. MOST
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT HAVE OPTED TO ADD ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE BORDER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE CHANGES TO THE WIND
FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. OUTFLOW FROM
THUNDERSTORMS IN CANADA HAVE SWITCHED WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MPJ
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0455Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KHVR TERMINAL THAT
FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
TERMINAL AREA THROUGH 07Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 10Z...CAUSING A TEMPORARY INCREASE
IN NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 35 KT A THE KGTF...KHLN...AND KLWT
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH
WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KCTB TERMINAL OVERNIGHT
AND NEAR THE KHVR TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 35 KT. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 615 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2008/
TROF ALONG BC/ALBERTA BORDER CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH TROF AXIS JUST REACHING ID PANHANDLE AT 2PM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE TROF AXIS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MT HAS BEEN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
SINCE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A FEW MODERATE TO STRONG BUT
SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN/SE PARTS OF THE CWA. EXPECT
AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTN/EVE AS TROF AXIS
ARRIVES ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC PUSH FROM 80 MPH JET STREAK
PASSING ALONG MT/WY BORDER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP PRIMARILY FROM GREAT FALLS SOUTHWARD WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE ALONG THE HI-LINE. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES HAVE
DECREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
GIVEN OTHER PARAMETERS TO GENERATE A FEW SEVERE CELLS WITH
QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. FORECAST STILL ON
TRACK FOR UPPER TROF TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH A FEW MODERATE CELLS MAY PERSIST NEAR HAVRE
UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE ARRIVES BY
MIDDAY SAT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. AS
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO ERN COLORADO ON SUN...FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND PUSH TEMPS UPWARD TO HIGH 80S/LOW 90S
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO FAR
SW MT WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND AFTN HEATING WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WARANAUSKAS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ONE OR
MORE PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVING ONSHORE. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT...THE GFS IS
POINTING TOWARD WARMER TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF...ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN GIVEN TO THE GFS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AND CLIMATOLOGY WOULD
FAVOR A SLOWER DEAMPLIFICATION AND A MORE NORTHERN STORM TRACK.
ALSO...GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN
NOTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY MIDWEEK...FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER THE AREA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE REGION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AND
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COHEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LATEST EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FLOWING THROUGH.
INSERTED CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. SAUCIER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 82 50 90 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 47 78 47 86 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 55 86 55 93 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 50 88 48 95 / 20 0 0 10
WEY 43 77 45 83 / 20 0 0 10
DLN 46 84 50 90 / 20 0 0 10
HVR 51 80 49 90 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 49 78 48 87 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
SHORT TERM...MPJ/WARANAUSKAS
LONG TERM...COHEN/SAUCIER
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 6:02 PM MST, 5 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
702 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2008
MTZ008>015-044>055-191200-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
702 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
Wildfire, Jefferson
- When
- July 19, 12:00 AM MST to July 23, 12:00 AM MST
- Where
- Jefferson forecast zone
- Reported by
- Other Federal Agency
Lightning sparked a wildfire that burned over 500 acres during four days. Suppression costs were just under $300,000.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flooding in Arizona, July 19, 20081 death · 2 events
- Tornadoes and Hail in Iowa, July 19 to 20, 2008$716,000 · EF1 · 19 events
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strikes in Massachusetts, July 19, 2008$1.9 million · 53 kt wind · 14 events
- Tornado and Hail in North Dakota, July 19, 2008$1.1 million · EF0 · 20 events
- Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, July 19, 2008$300,000 · EF0 · 10 events
- Tornado in Wisconsin, July 19, 2008$75,000 · EF1 · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in Iowa, July 19, 2008$95,000 · 61 kt wind · 11 events
- Damaging Winds in Utah, July 19 to 20, 2008$80,000 · 56 kt wind · 4 events
- Damaging Wind in Missouri, July 19, 2008$80,000 · 61 kt wind · 1 event
- Damaging Wind in New York, July 19, 2008$35,000 · 50 kt wind · 1 event
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Montana, July 19, 2008$2,000 · 1.75 in hail · 23 events
- Damaging Winds in Connecticut, July 19, 2008$17,000 · 70 kt wind · 4 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 124082.