Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, July 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 431 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008/

WEAK SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER W SODAK WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH INTO WESTERN NE BY THE EVENING HOURS. FAIRLY RESPECTABLE SHORT
WAVE DEPICTED ON VAPOR LOOP OVER CENTRAL SOD AK HELPING TO IGNITE
MCS WHICH IS KNOCKING AT THE DOORS OF OUR WESTERN FA THIS TIME
FRAME. USED GFS40 AS MODEL OF CHOICE DUE TO ITS HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST AND DEPICTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JUST SE
OF SOUTH CAROLINA. CLOUD TOP WARMING AND A LESS VORACIOUS LOW LEVEL
JET ACROSS W MN SHOULD CONTINUE THE TREND OF MCS WEAKENING FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD GAIN STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY INTENSE DIVERGENCE COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 100KT JET
CORE WHICH WILL PIERCE WEST CENTRAL MN BY LATE THIS MORNING. BEST
LIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF GOPHER STATE THIS
MORNING...AND THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BEST THETA E ADVECTION OF COURSE ACROSS SW AND WEST CENTRAL FA THIS
MORNING...WITH A SWITCH TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN CWA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH INVERTED TROUGH SET UP OVER
REGION ROUGHLY FROM SIOUX FALLS TO REDWOOD FALLS TO GOOHUE BY 00Z.
BEST ISENTROPIC OMEGA PER 310K SURFACE DEPICTS A RATHER NARROW AREA
OF PRECIPITATION TO TRAVERSE INTO E CENTRAL MN BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH BEST OMEGA CLEARLY INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
INTENSITY OF THETA E ADVECTION THIS REGION COUPLED WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FAST HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL THIS REGION. WHOLE BALL OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS
FA BY MIDNIGHT. INVERTED TROUGH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE POPS
REGION WIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE RELEGATED ONCE
AGAIN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS.

WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FINALLY TREK SOUTH WITH INVERTED TROUGH
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...EFFECTIVELY ENDING POPS CHANCES FA WIDE.
DRY BUT NOT TOO COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER MUCH
OF MN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND EXIT STAGE RIGHT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY WED AFTERNOON. STANDARD SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS MODERATE 50H
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. COULD SEE A FAST SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE. OTHER THEN THAT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY RIGHT INTO TGI FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL
MN WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A
WARM FRONT ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE FOCI FOR
ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE TS ACTIVITY /DEVELOPING AT
18Z/ TO BLOSSOM AND EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MN
THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING KRWF TO KEAU...WHERE RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE MVFR CATEGORY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AT KAXN/KSTC/KMSP/KRNH...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
DEGRADATIONS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST
PART...WITH THE NEXT CONCERN ON FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT KAXN AND KRWF.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LS/AJZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
201200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY SOUTH OF A MONTEVIDEO...TO LAKEVILLE...TO EAU
CLAIRE WISCONSIN LINE...BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY SOUTH OF
A MONTEVIDEO TO LAKEVILLE TO EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN LINE.

LS