Coastal Flood in Maryland, May 12 to 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1018 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...THEN
PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WET AND BUSY EVE ACRS FA. SYNOPTICALLY...VRY POTENT STORM
SETUP...W/ PARENT LO PERS INVOF OH...SCNDRY LO PERS INVOF MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY. STRNG/SVR CNVTN HAS DIMINISHED...HWVR...COMBO HI
PRES INVOF ERN NEW ENG...AND DVLPG LO PRES OVR THE BAY HV RESULTED
IN STRNG E WNDS (TO 50 KT) INVOF ERN SHR CTYS...AND PORTIONS OF
NRN NECK/MID PENINSULA IN VA PAST CPL HRS. THOSE WNDSPDS WL LIKELY
DCRS AS SCNDRY LO PRES MVS NE ONTO ERN SHR/OFF THE CST AFT MDNGT.
HVY RA SHOULD ALSO SHIFT JUST N OF FA AS WELL. NEXT AREA OF SCT
SHRAS ENTERING WSW AREAS OF FA ATTM...WL KP CHC/LIKELY POPS MOST
PLCS OVRNGT AS UPR LVL SYS FM THE W ARRIVES.

FYI...STM SURVEY PLANNED FOR MON ACRS NE NC TO INVESTIGATE PSBL
TORNADO ERYR THIS EVE. WL CONT TO TRY TO GATHER REPORTS ELSW INTO
MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY AND DEEPENS. PER GFS/NAM
BROAD...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE WRAP-AROUND MSTR
LINGERS OVER THE FCST AREA WITH THE GUSTY NRLY LLVL FLOW. PRECIP
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...THOUGH CONTINUE MOST
WIDESPREAD/FREQUENT (AT LEAST EARLY ON) OVER FAR NERN PTNS OF THE
FCST AREA (LWR MD ERN SHORE). ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
MONDAY GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST FLOW AND ABSENCE OF DOWNSLOPE
AFFECTS.

CONTINUE TO DIMINISH POPS FROM W TO E MON NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NAM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAD
BEEN MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF THE DRYING...THOUGH THE 12Z
RUN HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS (THUS SUPPORTING THE TIMING OF THE
DRIER AIR PER THE GFS). DRY FCST TUE INTO WED AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL COME WED NIGHT/THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE A WET PATTERN DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ERN
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRES SYS NEAR SE VA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE AND OFFSHORE
THRU MON MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION ESPECIALLY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. MOST SHOWER/TSTMS HAVE ENDED BUT STILL CHC OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING OVERNIGHT...THEN CHC OF SHOWERS INTO MON
AFTN AS AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE OVER REGION. VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR
CONDS AND CHC OF SHRA THRU THE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRES EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE DELMARVA EARLY MON BEFORE MOVG OUT TO SEA DURING AFTN.
HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TUE AND WED WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDS. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W WED NIGHT AND MOVES
THRU THE REGION THU THRU FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRICKY PART OF FORECAST IS LULL IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT THRU
EARLY MONDAY, AS LOW IS SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE. OPTED TO CONT
GALE THROUGH EVENT, AND SHOW TRANSITIONING WINDS IN FORECAST.

GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
BEGINS TO PIVOT AND FINALLY BEGIN MVING AWAY FROM THE COAST. HV
CARRIED GALE THRU TUE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR REMAINING GUSTS IN THE
35 KT RANGE...THIS MAY BE TRIMMED (OR EXTENDED?) WITH LATE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

TUE AFTN WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SCA FLAGS. AS IS TYPICAL, SEAS
WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND AND COASTAL WATRS MAY CARRY THE SMALL
CRAFT INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HV KEPT COASTAL FLOOD WATCH INTACT FOR COASTAL MD. GUIDANCE CONTS
TO COME IN WITH LOW END MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR OCEAN
CITY...BUT THIS IS STILL FOR MON NIGHT TIME PERIOD...SO THERE WILL
STILL BE TIME TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING OR ISSUE AND ADSVY (IF
NEEDED) ON THE MID SHIFT OR POSSIBLY EVEN THE EARLY DAY SHIFT.
JUST DO NOT FEEL OVERLY CONFIDENT IN WARNING AT THIS POINT.

CONSIDERED EXTENDING WATCH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...BUT
BARELY MINOR FLOODING IS BEING PREDICTED FOR PARRAMORE ISLAND. WILL
LIKELY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVSY FOR AREAS ALONG CHES BAY...BUT
HARD TO PIN POINT WHERE GREATEST THREAT IS AT THIS POINT, SO WILL
CONT MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/BKH
NEAR TERM...ALB/BKH
SHORT TERM...BKH
LONG TERM...BKH
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SMF
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

MDZ021>025-VAZ075>078-099-100-120415-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD...
PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY...CHINCOTEAGUE...
WALLOPS ISLAND...MELFA...EASTVILLE
1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO OFF THE CENTRAL DELMARVA COAST.
AS IT DOES SO...EHAVY RAIN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOWER MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EASTERN
SHORES...AND THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

MDZ021>025-VAZ075>078-099-100-120430-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD...
PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY...CHINCOTEAGUE...
WALLOPS ISLAND...MELFA...EASTVILLE
1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO OFF THE CENTRAL DELMARVA COAST.
AS IT DOES SO...HEAVY RAIN...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOWER MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EASTERN
SHORES...AND THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...EAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

ALB