Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Louisiana, December 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
936 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60 NM. ALSO...HAVE LOWER THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKES AND BAYS MARINE ZONES.

WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT. JUST MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES AND GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. MORE
DETAILS IN MY DISCUSSION SECTION.

RUA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST
OF GALVESTON BAY MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE
IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD DOWN FROM THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL LIFT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND...EACH HELPING TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THAT IS WHERE THE
FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING...AS IT ALWAYS DOES
WHEN YOUR DEALING WITH WINTER PRECIP NEAR THE GULF COAST.

HERE IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE ACCORDING TO THE 11/00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM KLCH. THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUE HAS LOWER TO
1310M. THIS IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF MIX PRECIP. HOWEVER...A WARM
LAYER WAS STILL NOTED ABOVE 900 MB...WHICH REACHED FOR ROUGHLY
1700 M WITH A MAX LAYER TEMP OF 4 C. ALSO USING...HILLWORTH
METHOD...1000 MB WETBULB WAS 1C WITH 850 MB WETBULB OF 4C. SO
PRECIPITATION FROM LAKE CHARLES AND EASTWARD WILL BE MAINLY RAIN
IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS WITH COOLER AIR AND
LOWER THICKNESS VALUES. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND DO A SPECIAL 11/06Z
SOUNDING TO SEE HOW THING ARE PROGRESSING AT MIDNIGHT.

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW....LAPS 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE BELOW 1300M AND CLOSE TO 1290M...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF A MIX TO ALL SNOW. THIS IS BEING CONFIRMED FROM
AN OBSERVER IN WILDWOOD TEXAS...WITH ALL SNOW FALLING WITH SOME
ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASSY AREAS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...PRECIP IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD CHANGE TO A PREDOMINATE WET SNOW/RAIN MIX
WITH A RAIN/WET SNOW/SLEET MIX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

THE BIG TRICK TONIGHT...IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE OVERNIGHT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SEE HOW MUCH WILL ACCUMULATE. RIGHT
NOW...LAPS AND PROJECTED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

THERE IS THE EXCEPTION BEING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF A BEAUMONT TO TOLEDO BEND LINE...WHERE SURFACE WETBULB AND
THUS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING.
THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE GROUND. STILL QPF AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 1/10 OF AN INCH. THEREFORE...USING
A 10 TO 1 RATIO...ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE SEEN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON OVER PASSES AND
BRIDGES...THUS KEEPING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.

SORRY FOR BEING SO LONG. JUST TRYING TO FIGURE THIS ALL OUT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008/

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VIS IN LIGHT RAIN AS TERMINALS
REMAIN IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION NEAR
7K FEET ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND 11K AT ALEXANDRIA. THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT. AFTER
THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO CAVOK AS WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY AT ALL LEVELS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

SINCE SOME SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT HOUSTON HOBBY, HUNTSVILLE AND LAKE
JACKSON, WILL NEED TO MONITOR AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE WINTRY MIX FOR
VIS TEMPO TO IFR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
MOSTLY SNOW MIX TOWARDS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008/

.RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH
OVERRUNNING RAIN AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL YIELD A MIXTURE OF RAIN
AND SLEET THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER CLL...
WHERE SNOW BEGAN OVER THE LAST HOUR. FURTHER EAST...RAIN MIXED
WITH ICE PELLETS IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE
TX...AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF
US-190. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE TX HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID/UPPER
30S ALL DAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S W LA...AND
STILL LOWER 40S ACROSS C AND SC LA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS SE TX...AND MAINLY
SKIRT THE LA COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. RA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASING
MIX WITH IP FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE THU WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RA/SN OR ALL SN ACROSS THIS
REGION...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM FORECASTED SOUNDINGS. SFC TEMPS
SOUTH OF US-190 WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH
ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED...OR AT LEAST TO LAST PAST AN HOUR OR
TWO. NORTH OF US-190...SFC TEMPS WILL APPROACH THE 31-32 DEGREE
MARK JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL THE PRECIP ENDS.
IT IS WITHIN THIS REGION WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH OF IP/SN COULD ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED OBJECTS SUCH AS BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES.

AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...PRECIP WILL END BY
MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. EXPECT A LIGHT FREEZE BY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

DML

MARINE...
GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES...WITH SCA ELSEWHERE
THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS...FINALLY RELAXING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  34  52  34  59  43 /  70  30   0   0   0
KBPT  33  53  36  62  46 /  70  20   0   0   0
KAEX  33  51  32  58  37 /  70  40  10   0   0
KLFT  34  48  33  59  40 /  70  40  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
     ORANGE...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
736 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     TORNADO          5 WNW ALEXANDRIA        31.31N 92.55W
12/09/2008  F1               RAPIDES            LA   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO BEGAN 1 MILE SOUTH OF THE ALEXANDRIA INTL
            AIRPORT AND MOVED NORTHEAST ENDING ALONG THE RED RIVER.
            ONE WAREHOUSE IN THE ENGLAND AIRPARK LOST ITS ROOF AND A
            HANGER WAS DAMAGED. THE ROOF OF A HOME ON ENGLAND DRIVE
            WAS PARTIALLY PEELED OFF DUE TO AN ATTACHED CARPORT AND A
            HOME ON LANNY STREET HAD A DAMAGED CARPORT. NUMEROUS
            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG THE PATH. PATH LENGTH OF 5
            MILES AND PATH WIDTH OF 25 YARDS.

&&

SHAMBURGER

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