Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
RIGHT REAR OF AN EXITING JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A RETREATING
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITH SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL WINDS FORECAST FROM THE
WEST SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 45 KTS OVER THE TOP OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS FOR SOME GOOD SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO MIX OUT INTO THE 50S HOWEVER THINK WITH CURRENT GOOD
ADVECTION THAT MID 60S WILL STICK. THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD WITH 90 OVER 65 SO TORNADOS ARE NOT
THE MAIN THREAT, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW IF THE DEWPOINTS
CLIMB TO NEAR 70 IN THE EAST. CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH LOOK
MARGINAL IN THE FAR WEST AND WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL IT. DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO RISE AHEAD OF CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 EAST TO MID 90S FAR SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND BREEZY.

FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN TOWARD HAYS WITH SOME POSSIBLE
STRATUS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60 LOOK GOOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEST.

ON MONDAY THE MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT STALLED OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS DODGE CITY. THIS COULD BE A VERY TRICKY FORECAST AND THE
FRONT COULD BE MORE SOUTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS NORTH TO THE WARMEST AROUND
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. WILL ALSO CARRY HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MCS. COULD ALSO HAVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS
DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND IF
DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70. THE COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY.

DAYS 3-7...

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES WITH
THE INVASION OF QUITE COOL AIR TUESDAY...EXTENT OF LIGHT RAINFALL
TUESDAY...AND TIMING THE EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS
WEDNESDAY.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH DAY FIVE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 130W AT 12Z SATURDAY
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS MOST
LIKELY WILL BETTER REPRESENT THE ATMOSPHERE NEXT WEEKEND.

THE SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
GRADUALLY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY
TUESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CANADA.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA OPENS UP AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...COOL CANADIAN AIR WILL SPILL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A MCS IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE REGION OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT...AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY PROBABLY WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS IN THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY WITH
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE QUITE COOL AND MAY HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 50S IN NORTHERN
KANSAS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND MAY
HAVE TO BE DROPPED EVEN MORE IN LATER SHIFTS.

CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
THINNING OF CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY
WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BY THURSDAY...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FRIDAY...WHEN THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EJECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
SATURDAY MORNING. CONSIDERABLY WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 1 JUNE AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

.AVIATION...

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS NEAR 005 JUST EAST OF THE
RETREATING DRYLINE FROM EAST OF LIBERAL TO NEAR HILL CITY WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD BURN OFF INTO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 040-060 BY LATE MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS FROM NEAR CNK TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TRIBUNE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND DRYLINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TO SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  65  90  59 /  30  30  30  50
GCK  92  63  90  57 /  20  20  30  50
EHA  94  61  95  58 /  20  20  20  40
LBL  94  64  94  60 /  30  30  30  40
HYS  91  63  84  56 /  40  40  50  70
P28  92  70  92  68 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-261000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
418 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008 /318 AM MDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO...RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL
RETURN INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
TO IGNITE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE FORECAST FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED INITIALLY IN THE SCOTT CITY
TO HAYS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN MOST AREAS BY EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06/01