Hail in Kansas, June 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA ALONG WITH LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER WAVE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
IS A 120 KT UPPER JET STREAK WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET ALREADY
EXITING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST EAST
OF YORK TO HEBRON TO JUST EAST OF BELOIT AND STILL SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

DESPITE REMAINING CAPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
PRODUCING HIGH TO EXTREME ML CAPES OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK INHIBITION SHOWN THROUGH MID EVENING BY THE
MODELS.  WHEN CONVECTION DOES FIRE...THE STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALLOW
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IF ANY
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE HASTINGS FORECAST AREA SINCE THE FRONT
HAS ALREADY CLEARED ALL BUT FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  WILL
OPT TO LEAVE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER
FILLMORE...THAYER...NUCKOLLS...JEWELL...MITCHELL AND OSBORNE
COUNTIES...BUT HAVE CUT OR COMPLETELY REMOVED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MID EVENING.  THE
BETTER TORNADO ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SUPERCELLS LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION OF BRIEF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL AND WINDS IN THE HWO.  IN ADDITION...THE
AREAS WITH HIGHER CHANCES COULD ALSO SEE A FLOODING THREAT AS PW
VALUES AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG WITH A STORM MOTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENT 850-300MB THICKNESS
SUPPORTING SOME BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION...ALL POINTS TOWARD A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  NONETHELESS...WILL TRIM THE FLOOD WATCH DOWN TO
A  HANDFUL OF COUNTIES BASED ON CONVECTION BEING FURTHER
EAST/SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DEVELOP A 50 KT LLJ BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...APPEARS THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP MOST...IF ANY...ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM FORMING WELL NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  GIVEN THIS SETUP WILL RAMP
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ARE THEN SHAPING UP TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA AS THE FRONT IS SHOWN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION.  THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
LIE WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STARTING LATE THIS WEEKEND.

END OF THE WORK WEEK EXPECTED TO STAY DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH MAIN
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.  ALOFT...LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.  WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

INTO THE WEEKEND...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF.  MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA...WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MIDWEST REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLATTENED RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND BUILD
A BIT OVER THE ROCKIES...BRINING SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE
REGION.  EXPECTING A WARM UP FROM FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.  INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
CANADA LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION.  AS IT DOES...THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA.  SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS WITH
DETAILS...BUT FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND SIT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 00Z MONDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WITH THIS BEING
MORE OF A QUICK MOVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UPPER SYSTEM...KEPT AT
SLIGHT CHANCE.

PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO LAST VERY LONG...WITH THE REST OF
THE DAY DRY.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...LEAVING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA.  AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL BRING HIGHS FOR MONDAY
DOWN A BIT...BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S NORTH WITH LOWER 80S
SOUTH.  KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING HIGHS BACK UP A TOUCH INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE HINTED AT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO OUR
CWA...WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING OVER.  CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH WITH THIS PRECIP...LEFT
KEPT POPS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT HAS
ALREADY PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS PAST MORNING AND MAIN
QUESTION IS IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FAR
ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR SLIDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...CHANCES
ARE LOOKING SLIGHT AT BEST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AROUND THE
TERMINAL THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS SETUP...WILL KEEP A VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE REMOVED PREVAILING
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FROM THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE VISIBILITY
SHOULD REMAIN UNLIMITED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ077-086-087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

KSZ006-007-017>019-NEZ064-076-077-085>087-121200-
SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE-WEBSTER-
NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
405 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EAST OF A GENEVA NEBRASKA TO
RED CLOUD NEBRASKA TO PLAINVILLE KANSAS LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS EVENING EAST OF A
GENEVA NEBRASKA TO SUPERIOR NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS LINE.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ONE OR TWO ISOLATED BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES DURING THE
THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF HEBRON TO BELOIT LINE. HEAVY RAIN
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THE EVENING
TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF A GENEVA NEBRASKA TO SUPERIOR NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATIONS NOW FOR QUICK DEPLOYMENT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084-121200-
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-
BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-FURNAS-HARLAN-
FRANKLIN-
405 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEST OF A GENEVA NEBRASKA TO RED
CLOUD NEBRASKA TO PLAINVILLE KANSAS LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF A
FULLERTON NEBRASKA TO GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS
LINE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WEST OF A
GENEVA NEBRASKA TO RED CLOUD NEBRASKA TO PLAINVILLE KANSAS LINE
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING PENNEY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)