Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
150 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS STRETCH
FROM THE GRT LKS ACRS SRN WI TO NRN IL AND NRN MO. INDIANA WAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70. RADAR SHOWS TSRA OVR NRN INDIANA. SURFACE
WIND FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST SOME LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE ACRS NRN INDIANA
AND THE NRN PART OF THE FA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT
ARE HAVING DIFFICULT WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR HAPHAZARD AT
BEST. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES THIS EVENING NEAR
1700 J/KG ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LIS. BEST CHCS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT
WL BE ACRS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FA WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
BEST...LESSER CHANCES ACRS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS
FOR TEMPS TONIGHT WL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST DEW POINTS ACRS THE AREA.

SCT DIURNAL TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY.
AGAIN...WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ACRS THE NRN PART
OF THE STATE...BEST CHCS WL BE ACRS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FA. AS FOR
TEMPS WL STICK QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS FOR HIGHS AS H8 TEMPS WL BE
ON THE RISE WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND GOOD MIXING AVAILABLE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH INDIANA FROM
THE WRN GRT LKS. ALSO A STRONGER LLJ APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING THE
STATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED
COLUMN BY 06Z. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW DECENT VV ALONG WITH BETTER
MID LVL MOISTURE. HENCE WL RAISE MAVMOS POPS AS PCPN APPEARS TO BE
MORE LIKELY. AS FOR TEMPS WL GO 1-2 DEGREES BELOW MAVMOS DUE TO
EXPECTED PCPN.

UPPER LOW PRESS SYS BEGINS TO DROP OUT OF THE GRT LKS ON SAT AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATE IN PLACE WL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO INCLUDE CHC FOR TSRA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NE
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DYNAMICS APPEAR BETTER. WL
STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR SAT HIGHS. ON SAT NIGHT EXPECT DIURNAL
PCPN TO DISSIPATE...GIVING WAY TO JUST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN
AT THE SFC BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A STRONGER UPPER TROF ALOFT
PIVOTING AROUND LOW PRES OVER THE NE STATES. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
EXPECT SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN
THE NW FLOW AND WL INCLUDE CHCS FOR SOME PCPN.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR TUES THROUGH THURS...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DYNAMICS ALOFT. BY THURSDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHUD
RETURN AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...BUT WL NOT INCLUDE
PCPN CHCS JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

SFC OBS AND INSTABILITY GRAD SUGGESTS A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACRS FAR ERN IL. MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY WL SAG SEWD ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA DURG THE COURSE OF THE AFT...GENERATING AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION ALONG IT GIVEN THE CURRENT INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE CLOSE TO BEING REACHED...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DVLPMT OVR THE
NEXT HR OR SO. BEST ESTIMATES AT THIS TIME FOR CONVECTION TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WL BE THRU ABOUT 262200 OR SO.
INSTABILITY AXIS ALREADY E OF KLAF AND CLOSE TO KHUF...SO THESE
TERMINALS MAY HV A  LWR CONVECTIVE THREAT THAN AREAS FARTHER E. SOME
LO THREAT OF CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVR THE TERMINALS BYD
262200Z...ESPECIALLY IF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/INSTABILITY
POCKETS ARE STILL ARND. BRIEF PDS OF IFR CONDS XPCTD IN THE HEAVIER
SHWRS.

MODEL/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST A FEW SFC WND GUSTS ARND 15 KTS PSBL FM
220-250 HEADINGS THIS AFT. ANY GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SFC BOUNDARY BY EVEN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...PUMA
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
440 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-271000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
440 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LIGHTNING IS
ALWAYS A THREAT FROM A THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A GREATER THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION TODAY...BUT
ACTIVATION IS MORE LIKELY SOMETIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)