Flash Flood and Flooding in Indiana, February 5 to 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
104 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
LOOK FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT VISBYS TO LINGER AROUND 1/4 MILE IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...BEFORE IMPROVING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR REDUCED VISBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS
WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 3/4 MILE IN HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. GUSTY
WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH
OF THE FA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AN ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008/

UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED THIS EVE FROM NW
INDIANA THROUGH MO. THIS BAND IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF SFC CDFNT
WHICH WILL SAG SE INTO NRN INDIANA AS A WK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NE ALONG IT INTO NRN MI. APPEARS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL TRAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH PRECIP
WATER OBSERVED AT ILX NEAR 1 AND FCST TO EXCEED 1 BY 18Z NAM
OVER OUR AREA OVERNIGHT HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND MOVED UP THE FLOOD WATCH PREVIOUSLY STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING TO THE CURRENT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008/

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN AVIATION DISCUSSION... LOW VSBYS (1/4MI OR LESS)
ARE PERSISTING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IMPROVED VSBYS ACROSS
SRN ZONES BY 7PM LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS APPEARS WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR ALL THE SNOW TO MELT OR CDFNT TO COME THROUGH BEFORE SGFNT
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS OCCURS. THUS, WILL BE EXTENDING THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 4AM EST. NO OTHER SGFNT CHANGES TO EARLIER FCSTS
PLANNED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
HYDRO CONCERNS AT THE FOREFRONT THIS PD W/RAPID SNOWMELT IN PROGRESS
AND IMPENDING THUNDERSTORMS. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS MORE LIKE LT MARCH
W/WELL ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTER NR
KIRK W/MOST OF CNTRL/SRN MO IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS HOUR. FARTHER
NORTH...DENSE FOG CONTS OVR SNOWPACK W/WIDESPREAD NR ZERO
VISIBILITIES.

SVRL DIFFICULTIES THIS PD TO GO THROUGH. FIRST OFF IS NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. COMPACT NRN STREAM MID LVL SW RESPONSIBLE FOR
SVR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER EARLIER TODAY OVR ERN IA/WRN IL LIFTING
RAPIDLY NEWD OUT OF NE WI W/WKNG LLJ ALG TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BUT
ENOUGH LEFT TO GENERATE LOW TOP CONVECTION NR KSBN. XPC THIS AREA TO
CARRY QUICKLY NEWD OUT OF CWA THIS AFTN WHILE FOCUS SHIFTS TO
CNTRL/WRN IL AGAIN. VAPOR SHOWS WK MID LVL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
SRN STREAM OVR NW AR W/TCU NOTED NR KCOU EWD TO KSTL AND EVENTUAL
INITIATION SOMEWHERE OVR WRN/CNTRL IL AND THEN DEVELOPING ENE AS LLJ
AND POTENT LL THETA-E SURGE EWD TAKES PLACE IN ASSOCN/W ADVG FNTL
WAVE BACK IN NR MO. IN ADDN...ELEVATED BUT AS YET STILL CONDITIONAL
SVR RISK FOR SVR HAIL W/MU CAPES BASED FM 850MB YIELDING 600-700
MUCAPE FROM 02-06Z ACRS NRN INDIANA INTO NW OHIO. SFC WARM FRONT
CONTS TO MAKE PROGRESS NWD AND SFC TEMPS RESPONDING ALTHOUGH SLOWED
W/FOG AND SNOWMELT. DO NOT XPC ANY FALL OFF THIS EVENING XCP
PERHAPS FAR NE IN DEEPER EASTERLY FLW HWVR SRN HALF SHLD WARM INTO
THE 50S BY MORNING.

AS FIRST SFC WAVE LIFTS INTO MI BY DAYBREAK...ATTN THEN TURNS TO
STG SRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR AZ THIS AFTN AND SECONDARY FNTL WAVE
DVLPMNT TUE NIGHT. TRENDS FM EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FURTHER SRN
TRACK OF SECONDARY WAVE AND PREFERRED ALG W/HPC ACCESSMENT. THIS
WOULD IMPLY GREATER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACRS SE HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
STALLED SFC BNDRY TUE MORNING AND AFT BUT OVERSPREADING ENTIRE CWA TUE
NIGHT AND LIKELY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY SNOW OVR NW INDIANA LATE TUE
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL GO W/A MID MORNING HIGH AND NON DIURNAL TO
ACCOUNT FOR FALLING TEMPS OVR NW INDIANA TUE AFTN AS THERMAL BNDRY
TIGHTENS IN ASSOCN/W DEEPENING SECONDARY WAVE. CONCENSUS MAX QPF
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF 2-4 INCH RAINS ALG/SE OF A
MONTICELLO...DEFIANCE LINE BY 12Z WED W/WIDESPREAD 1-2 EVERYWHERE.
GIVEN 4 INCH SOIL TEMPS NR FREEZING, SATURATED GROUND FM SNOWMELT
AND INCOMING RAIN XPC WIDESPREAD AREAL/RIVER FLOODING AND WILL BACK PREV
FAA TO 12Z TO CVR MORNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESP IN LIGHT OF NEWER
18Z GUIDANCE.

REFER TO LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC FLOOD STAGE FORECAST
INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT A LOW WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
ALSO BE MOVING INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING THE RAIN OVER
TO SNOW. TOMORROW NIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH LOWER THAN TONIGHT/S LOWS. THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW. ALTOGETHER FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT UP TO
THREE INCHES OF SNOW...THE SOUTHWESTERN PART CAN EXPECT ONE TO TWO
INCHES...THE SOUTHEASTERN PART UP TO AN INCH...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN PART ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW. SUBSEQUENTLY
WEDNESDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
TOMORROW/S...NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND -8 DEGREES CELSIUS
COMPARED TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR CWA. THEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ENTERING THE AREA BRINGING WITH
IT A CHANCE FOR SNOW. THIS UPPER TROUGH WAS PROGGED TO BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT NOW
SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT THAT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SNOW
ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT. DO
WANT TO SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENCY IN THIS NEW SCENARIO BEFORE
ALTERING THE END OF THIS WEEK/S FORECAST. ALSO MODELS ARE NOT
BEING VERY CONSISTENT AT ALL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL NOT BE CHANGING ANYTHING IN THAT TIME FRAME
ALSO.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-
     022>027-032>034.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012>016-020-022.

MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER
AVIATION...CHAMBERLAIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008

INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>024-MIZ077>080-051845-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-NOBLE-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-
BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
COLDWATER
131 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 /1231 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A PERU INDIANA TO COLDWATER
MICHIGAN LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO RENEWED FLOODING
CREEKS...LOW LYING AREAS...BASEMENTS AND PONDING OF WATER ACROSS
ROADS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING OF LARGER
STEM RIVERS...PONDS AND LAKES...IS POSSIBLE FROM MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ007-009-018-025>027-032>034-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-
025-051845-
STEUBEN-DE KALB-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-
ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...AUBURN...GARRETT...FORT WAYNE...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...
WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...
OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
131 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SNOWMELT AND
RAINFALL TUESDAY MAY LEAD TO RENEWED FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS BY
MID WEEK.

MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-051845-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
131 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1020 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008

INZ006-007-MIZ080-050345-
BRANCH-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-
1020 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1018 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF BRONSON...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LAGRANGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE...EAST GILEAD...GILEAD...LAKE OF THE
WOODS...COLDWATER LAKE...MARBLE LAKE...COLDWATER...QUINCY AND SOUTH
BUTLER.

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1222 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

INZ009-017-018-022>027-032-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-050615-
ADAMS-ALLEN-CASS-DE
KALB-DEFIANCE-FULTON-GRANT-HENRY-HUNTINGTON-MIAMI-PAULDING-WABASH-
WELLS-WHITLEY-WILLIAMS-
1222 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1219 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF
FAYETTE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOGANSPORT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE...FORT WAYNE...WABASH...HUNTINGTON...
PERU...DEFIANCE...PAULDING...WAUSEON AND MARION.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

INZ018-050730-
ALLEN-
156 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 150 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEW HAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
RURAL EASTERN ALLEN COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SCHOTT