Drought in Hawaii, September 1 to 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN AUG 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS. A LOW ALOFT NEAR KAUAI WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AND
KEEP THE SHOWERS A BIT ACTIVE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL
TURN DRIER BY MID-WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BEING CARRIED
WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW. A LOT OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE RATHER UNSTABLE CUMULUS AND RADARS SHOW MODERATE SHOWERS
FALLING FROM THESE CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER WINDWARD AREAS...
BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL SPREAD LEEWARD ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE
HIGH NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST.
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW HIGH BUILDS FAR NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST
TROUGH ALOFT WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A LOW WITHIN
THE TROUGH CENTERED 130 MILES WEST OF KAUAI. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS A BIT UNSTABLE AND KEEPING
OUR SHOWERS RATHER ACTIVE. THE COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH
MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT CENTERED 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST
AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE ISLANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BECOME QUITE STABLE BY WEDNESDAY AND
WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...RAINFALL MAY
BECOME QUITE LIGHT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...REMAINING JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE...THEN BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

A STORM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND HAS PRODUCED A SWELL THAT MAY
PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DONALDSON