High Surf in Hawaii, November 17 to 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON NOV 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE MOVING ALONG
IN THE TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY TRADE SHOWERS. THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AFTER MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS KAUAI AND SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF
OAHU OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS AND DOWNWIND LOCATIONS AS WINDS FUNNEL AROUND TERRAIN
FEATURES. LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WERE MEASURED AT THE
WAIANAE VALLEY RAWS AS THE WIND ACCELERATES DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF
THE WAIANAE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OTHER OF THE WINDIER STATIONS ON OAHU
AND KAUAI HAVE REPORTED GUSTS UP TO NEAR 40 MPH. THE LARGE 1033 MB
HIGH NORTH OF THE STATE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TRADES WILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THESE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...PERSISTENT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BROUGHT IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS TO KAUAI. MT
WAIALEALE RAIN GAGE HAS LOGGED 5.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24
HOURS AND THE LOWLAND WINDWARD KAUAI AREA HAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1
AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. LESSER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN ON THE OTHER
ISLANDS...BUT THE COVERAGE JUST AS WIDESPREAD ON WINDWARD
LOCATIONS.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...CURRENTLY ENHANCING CLOUD TOPS TO THE
WEST OF THE STATE...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SHOWERS
WITH DEEP INSTABILITY AND INCREASED LIFT. GFS LIFTED INDEX VALUES
FORECAST BETWEEN -2 AND -4 BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KAUAI AND
SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HAVE ADDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THESE AREAS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE KAUAI WATERS...THEN ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WITH THE THE STIFF TRADES
CONTINUING...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
LEEWARD COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE BIG
ISLAND WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SLOPES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN FLUX WITH LARGE RUN TO RUN
DISCREPANCIES CONTINUING FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY. THEREFORE
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS AND CONTINUE
TO HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED BEYOND THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A ROUGH SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO THE
INCREASING TRADE WINDS. THIS SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS UP ABOVE
THE 8 FOOT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
OAHU AND KAUAI THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...10 FOOT SEAS ARE AN ISSUE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS. THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST KAUAI WATERS
TO THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL THROUGH TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR CHANNELS AND MAALAEA BAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

BRENCHLEY