Drought in Georgia, November 1 to 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT IT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD
LIMITED MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ON TAP AS
LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.
CONCERNED ABOUT OVERNIGHT LOWS EVEN WITH THESE CONDITIONS. DEW
POINTS ARE NOT AS DRY AS EXPECTED. ALSO...H85 TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM.
BLENDED LATEST GUIDANCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. THIS RAISES TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME PLACES...ESPECIALLY OVER THERMAL BELT AND
RIDGES WHERE INVERSE LAPSE RATE SHOULD DEVELOP.

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BREAKING DOWN ACRS THE SE
CONUS ON SATURDAY...BUT DEEP DRYING WILL BE SLOW TO DISPLACE...
PERHAPS GIVING WAY TO JUST SOME LATER DAY CI. AT ANY RATE...ANOTHER
SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SPEND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK IN BETWEEN THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
LITTLE NOTICE...BECAUSE TEMPS DO NOT DROP OFF AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. MEANWHILE...MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT ATLANTIC MOISTURE
SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND INVADE FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MINIMAL FORCING WILL MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH TO ACCOMPANY THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO BRING A SMALL
THREAT FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THE MOSGUIDE POP
IS UNDERCUT BUT AN UPWARD TREND HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE
FORECAST. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT
BELOW WHAT WAS THOUGHT PREVIOUSLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE SC COAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN PROCEEDS TO MOVE IT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ANY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE COAST. AT THIS POINT...AM
INCLINED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH HPC IN BLENDING THE TWO SOLUTIONS
TOGETHER WHICH KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING MID WEEK. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE THE FIRST PART OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE KEPT DRY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPS
EARLY ON TO NARROW THE DIURNAL RANGE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER
WEDNESDAY FOR THE HIGH TEMP FIGURING THE LOW WOULD BE WELL TO THE
EAST.

THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND HPC.  THE ECMWF AND THE
LATEST GFS BOTH HAVE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST THURSDAY MORNING WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS SURE THAT THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH SHOWERS
GETTING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE END OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY FRIDAY.  CAPES ON
THE GFS ARE QUITE LOW AND SHEER VALUES AS WELL...SO JUST SHOWERS.
AS THIS FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY MID DAY FRIDAY...SHOWERS
SHOULD END.  ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT IS THE VERY END OF
CONSIDERATION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
JUST A WIND FCST THIS PACKAGE AS CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
BECOME CALM THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS SAT
MORN BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW MAY JUST REACH AS FAR WEST AS
KCLT ON TUE...BUT AT THIS POINT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THE
GREATEST IMPACT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO/PM
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-012345-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
733 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ028-029-012345-
HART-ELBERT-
733 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.