Storm Surge and Heavy Rain in Florida, September 9 to 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER MOST OF
LEVY AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING FROM THE EAST AND
MAY BRING SOME BRIEF RAIN PERIODS THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF IKE...WHICH IS NOW
AFFECTING THE ISLAND OF CUBA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME TIGHTER
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AS IKE SWINGS TO OUR
SOUTH...BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH IKE MOVING INTO THE GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY...SWELLS GENERATED
BY THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THEREFORE...A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR ALL COASTAL COUNTIES.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGING OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST HAS SHIFTED WEST AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPED INTO THE PACIFIC NW. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
REACHED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO THE U.S. MIDWEST. ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED TO THE SE U.S. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT COLD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER HIGH WAS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WAVY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
SE U.S. AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HURRICANE IKE WAS ON THE CUBAN
COAST...NEAR CAMAGUEY.

&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE ISOLD SHOWERS ON THE FAR OUTER PERIPHERY OF IKE
MAY AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A
FEW MORE PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE WITH ADVISORY OR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA EXPECTED AT
ALL WATERS. THE CAUTION AREAS MOST LIKELY WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO ADVISORY BY TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND ENGLEWOOD.

MARINE INTERESTS NEED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND HURRICANE IKE
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT IN EFFECT UNTIL
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-081600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
530 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS
OF IKE WILL EFFECT THE AREA.

....RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IKE REACH WESTERN FLORIDA. BEACH GOERS MUST
HEED WARNING SIGNS AND LIFEGUARD INSTRUCTIONS REGARDING RIP
CURRENT THREATS AT LOCAL BEACHES.

...HIGH SURF IMPACTS....
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES WILL ALSO REACH BEACHES AND LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEACH GOERS MUST
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND HEED ALL POSTED WARNINGS AND
LIFEGUARD INSTRUCTIONS WHERE AVAILABLE. THE INCREASING SURF WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY ROUGH WATER CONDITIONS...LARGE BREAKING WAVES...
RIP CURRENTS...AND STRONG UNDERTOW.

...MARINE GUST IMPACT...
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE.
MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS CAN EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AND SMALL CRAFT WILL WANT TO REMAIN IN PORT DURING THIS TIME.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
LARGE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN REACHING THE COASTLINE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
AT THIS TIME...THE AMOUNT OF COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK WHEN HURRICANE GUSTAV MOVED BY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA PRODUCING TIDES THAT WERE GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST WHERE UP TO 3 FEET OCCURRED. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL ALSO
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRC