Drought in Florida, March 1 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
946 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EVENING UPDATES AS EVERYTHING
APPEARS TO BE STATUS QUO. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 5K FEET WITH PWAT STILL UNDER ONE INCH. EASTERLY
FLOW HAS DEEPENED UP TO SUBSIDENCE LAYER BUT WITH STILL DRY LOW
LEVELS AND NO TARGETS SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF POPS EXCEPT FOR ISOLD OVR THE ATLANTIC ALTHOUGH THIS KIND OF A
STRETCH BUT IT IS ONLY 10 PERCENT SO NOT WORTHY OF CHANGING.
SHORTWAVE IN MID LATITUDES RACING ACROSS THE GOFMEX AND THIS QUITE
EVIDENT ON BOTH IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERIES BUT AGAIN NOTHING TO
THIS BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BE COOL
SO LAND BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE 21Z WRF
MODEL RUN HINTS AT THIS BUT KEEPS EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CST. THE
WRF DOES HAVE A PROBLEM SOMETIMES WITH THESE LAND BREEZES AND IT
ALL DEPENDS ON IF THE COOLNESS OF THE LANDMASS CAN OVERCOME THE
DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW AND WHEN IT DOES DEVELOP IF IT CAN
PENETRATE ALL THE WAY TO THE E CST. HAVE LEFT TEMPS ALONE FOR THIS
REASON BUT IF EASTERLY FLOW CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF, MINIMUM TEMPS
MIGHT BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW BUT AGAIN NOT WORTHY OF
MESSING WITH IT AT THIS POINT SINCE WE ARE TALKING AROUND 50
DEGREES. MARINE ZONES WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DUE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FCST TREND SO WILL DROP
SCEC STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN LEG. 30/KOB

&&

.AVIATION...MOST DIFFICULT WEATHER PARAMETER TO FORECAST NEXT 12
HRS IS WHETHER OR NOT A LAND BREEZE/DRAINAGE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVR
ERN TERMINALS. BELIEVE THE GRADIENT FLOW IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THE WINDS TO GO NORTH AND BACK ONLY TO THE NNE LATE
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS KTMB, WHERE THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME N
AND LIGHT. LIGHT NE WIND IS FCSTD FOR KAPF. SCT LCL BKN SC WILL
DRIFT IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH CIRRUS MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF.
ANYWAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. 18/GR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008/

DISCUSSION...THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA WILL BECOME ZONAL ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SATURDAY BEFORE STRETCHING OUT AND LOSING
PUNCH. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUNDAY, WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SHOW UP OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND A FEW MAY BE COMING ONSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. FOR THE MOST PART, WEEKEND
WEATHER LOOKS REASONABLY GOOD THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW MOS
GUIDANCE EXCEPT WILL SHADE OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE LOWER IN
ANTICIPATION OF OFFSHORE FLOWING LAND BREEZES AND DECOUPLING.

A STORM SYSTEM JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE DIGGING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONG
AND ON MONDAY SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING WITH A PSEUDO
WARM/MOISTURE FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM THE STRAITS AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING DIXIE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA DEPENDING ON HOW EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WARM FRONT, OR IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY OR WITH A
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MARCH MAY BE COMING IN LIKE
A LION RATHER THAN A LAMB, TO BE TRITE.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY BUT DOESNT LAST AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND YET ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER ATMOSPHERE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PROMISING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BUT THIS IS WAY OUT AND A LOT COULD CHANGE. NEVERTHELESS
NEXT WEEK COULD BE VERY INTERESTING.

CLIMATOLOGY...THE THREE WINTER MONTHS OF DECEMBER, JANUARY AND
FEBRUARY LIKELY WILL BE THE SECOND WARMEST WINTER FOR MIAMI SINCE
RECORDS ARE AVAILABLE. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF THOSE THREE MONTHS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 73.1 DEGREES. THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR
MIAMI EXTENDS BACK TO 1895. THE ONLY WARMER WINTER WAS IN
1931-1932 WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF THOSE THREE MONTHS WAS
73.4 DEGREES. FEBRUARY 2008 WILL ALSO LIKELY BE IN THE TOP THREE
OR FOUR WARMEST FEBRUARIES ON RECORD AT MIAMI. IT IS INTERESTING
THAT THE SAME STATISTIC DOES NOT APPEAR TO HOLD AT WEST PALM
BEACH, WHERE DJF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 2007-2008 IS NOT IN THE
TOP FIVE ALTHOUGH IT IS WARMER THAN NORMAL AND FEBRUARY 2008 IS
NOT IN THE TOP TEN WARMEST FEBRUARIES. RECORDS FOR WEST PALM GO
BACK TO 1888. FINAL STATISTICS AND SUMMARY WILL BE AVAILABLE
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK INCLUDING NAPLES AND FORT LAUDERDALE.

AVIATION...MOST DIFFICULT WX PARAMETER TO FORECAST NEXT 24 HRS
IS WHETHER OR NOT A LAND BREEZE/DRAINAGE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVR ERN
TERMINALS. RATHER MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD DECREASE IN SPEED FOR
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAND AND ATLC
WATERS SHOULD BE LARGE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A DRAINAGE FLOW, WOULD
EXPECT EAST FLOW TO STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AS TO COUNTERACT MUCH
OF THE LAND BREEZE, SO THAT THE RESULTANT FLOW BE MAINLY NNE
ACROSS ALL ERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. NE WIND FLOW SHOULD ALSO
PREVAIL OVER KAPF THROUGH 18Z SAT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF S. FL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILINGS ARND 4 TO 5 KFT OVER THE ERN TERMINALS
AS PATCHES OF STRATOCU CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

MARINE...WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RUN 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE BRISK OVER THE
WATER BUT THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF AN OFFSHORE LAND BREEZE
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO ISSUES EXPECTED HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
HUMIDITIES INCREASING.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
830 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

...INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES AS LOW TIDE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A ROUND
OF STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON
TUESDAY. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT IS FAR OUT IN TIME,
SO STAY TUNED TO LATER UPDATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.