Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 1 to 4, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
220 PM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...BIGGEST FORECAST BUGABOO IS IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. FIRST THINGS
FIRST...TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SITUATION OVER THE CONUS...A
SHALLOW TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A CLOSED LOW
WAS MEANDERING AROUND OFF THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST...WITH MORE
ENERGY HEADING FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE BIG BEND OF TX. DRIER AIR IS HANGING TOUGH JUST EAST
OF THE FA...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS KICKED IN LONG ENOUGH FOR DECENT PRECIP
H20 VALUES OVER THE FA AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
A WEAK FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES SWINGS EAST. LOOKING AT RADAR...A BAND OF SHOWERS
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN AR TO EASTERN TN IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH.
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT TO ONSHORE BY THE END OF SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM JUST EAST OF THE MISS RIVER TO OFF THE EAST
COAST AS THE NEXT WEATHER MAKE STARTS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES. EVEN WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...WIND SPEED ARE
BEING ADVERTISED AS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STRATUS DECK TO MOVE ONSHORE
INSTEAD OF A GENERAL DENSE FOG. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS...SO HAVENT DEVIATED FOR THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY ON)...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS PROVING TO BE THE
MOST CRITICAL PERIOD...FORECAST-WISE...IN THE EXTENDED. REASON IS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EASTERN CONUS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
LOWER/MID MISS RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME NORTH/SOUTH
POSITIONING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT TIMING IS PRETTY
CONSISTENT. LOOKING AT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS...850MB
JET IS IN EVIDENCE MOVING OVER MS/AL...THEN GA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR. TIMING FOR
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS APPEARS TO BE AFTERNOON SCATTERED TSRA...WITH
SOME SPINNERS...AND A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT...
BISECTING THE FA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH (NORTH/SOUTH)
WITH THE THICKNESS VALUES. WHAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IS THE NORTH HALF
OF MS/AL GETTING SOME SOLID PRECIP...SOUTHERN HALF IS WHERE THE
INCONSISTENCY HAS BEEN SHOWING UP. AM NOT GOING TO PUT ANY SOLID
PRECIP IN AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT ON...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA...BUT WITH ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DIGGING A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED THE LATTER COUPLE PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN THE CASE OF THE CURRENT ONE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA PICKED UP THIS MORNING AND
REQUIRED A BRIEF SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WINDS SHOULD HAVE
DIMINISHED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS A RATHER WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EASES TO THE COAST WATERS. THE FRONT
DISSIPATES OVER THE COAST WATERS SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
ANYWHERE FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS...LIGHT VARIABLE IN BETWEEN. WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THEY VEER MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A MUCH STRONGER FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN ADVANCE AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOULD
ALSO BE A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO THE WIND. /11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THE
FARTHER NORTH ONE GOES...CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS SWINGING AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NORTHERN SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO AN EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SYSTEM PUSHING A STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  72  50  73  57 /  20  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   52  72  50  72  57 /  20  10  10  05  20
DESTIN      49  68  52  67  56 /  05  10  10  00  20
EVERGREEN   45  70  38  75  47 /  30  20  05  00  20
WAYNESBORO  46  69  43  73  53 /  50  20  05  05  20
CAMDEN      46  70  39  75  47 /  50  20  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...AND MOBILE BAY.

&&

11/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
115 PM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-012000-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
115 PM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING.

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED WAVE
HEIGHT OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND CHOPPY TO ROUGH
CONDITIONS ON THE BAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOT BE
REQUIRED THROUGH SUNDAY. ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATER DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.