High Surf in Delaware, November 5 to 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY TOWARD THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS LOW,
WE EXPECT A WIDE AREA OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
ZONES. THIS IS THE AREA OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES, AREAS TOWARD THE COAST COULD SEE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE
WEAKENING AND SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO SEA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS IT REACHES THE SAME LATITUDE AS DELAWARE BAY. WHILE MOVING
NORTHWARD, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, IN-TURN HELPING TO
INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA TONIGHT. WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BECOME QUITE
BREEZY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES,
POSSIBLY GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH CLOSER TOWARD THE COAST. RIGHT NOW WE
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIND ADVISORIES, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST DATA IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. ALSO, AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND FINALLY MOVES OUT TO SEA, THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WANE
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER TONIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
FINALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN, UNLIKE THE LAST SYSTEM,
BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA, A BROAD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
EASTERN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN ALL
RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FURTHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST,
THE LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK. FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD HELP CLARIFY THE DETAILS ON THIS
SYSTEM MORE. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SATURDAY WHICH MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN INTO OUR REGION FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, THE INCREASING
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY BRING SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE MAINLY VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES.

WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG,
AND ESPECIALLY AT KMIV AND KACY.  AS ONE MOVES INLAND AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE LOW, CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE AT KABE
AND KRDG TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON
THURSDAY, CONDITIONS MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE
NIGHT, WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTH AND IT SHOULD REACH THE WATERS OFF
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE LOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, POSSIBLY CRESTING
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET TONIGHT.

WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS ON OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
AND ON THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AROUND NOONTIME.  THE GALE
FORCE GUSTS MAY SPREAD UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  WITH THE GALE GUSTS ANTICIPATED IN THE FIRST FORECAST
PERIOD, WE HAVE SIMPLY STARTED WITH A GALE WARNING.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SO THE GALE WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 600 AM ON THURSDAY.

WHILE GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY, GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.  AS A RESULT,
THE UPPER BAY WILL BE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1000 AM THIS
MORNING UNTIL 600 AM ON THURSDAY.

THE COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE GRADUALLY AND
SEAS TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...
EVEN WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY TIDAL FLOODING
FROM OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  NEVERTHELESS, THE
SURF WILL BE QUITE ROUGH FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
428 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-060930-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
428 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-450>455-060930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
428 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-060930-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
428 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROBERTSON