Drought in California, January 1 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
845 PM PST MON DEC 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. WIND
ADVISORIES AND RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS WINDY...WET...AND COLDER AS SEVERAL
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

&&

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE GREAT
BASIN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN
RESPONSE WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS IN THE
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS. THE GRADIENTS SHOULD PEAK OVERNIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY UNWIND ON TUE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING
BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING FROM THE SW. IR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS THE CULPRIT. FARTHER WEST
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE POOL OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
DEGREES NORTH...IN THE VICINITY OF 155W. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY
EXPANDING TO THE NE AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS NEAR 150W.

THE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED INLAND AND OVER ORANGE COUNTY
AND SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS IN
THESE AREAS. SHELTERED AREAS WILL RADIATE EASILY AND REMAIN QUITE
COOL DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS.

IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON NEW YEARS DAY EVEN WITH THE HIGH
CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DIM THE SUN FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF ENOUGH
LATE TUESDAY SO THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL NO
LONGER BE NEEDED.

WE WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO A STORMIER PATTERN ON THU WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT...BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO
BE SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE PACIFIC STEERING MORE ENERGY AND MOISTURE INTO SOCAL. ALL
AREAS WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BY
SATURDAY...IF NOT SOONER...AND ENDING BY LATE MON. MORE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
010415Z...ALL OF THE HAZE HAS CLEARED AS OFFSHORE FLOW HAD INCREASED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH ONLY LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 5 MILES DUE TO BLOWING DUST...AND ANY
CIGS TUE DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ABOVE 15000 FT. AREAS OF SFC
WINDS FROM THE E-NE...GENERALLY 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS LOCALLY OVER 45
KT...WILL OCCUR THROUGH/BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. THE USUAL
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL OCCUR. LLWS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS WHERE EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR 1000-2000 FT ABOVE THE
SFC. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ALL OF ORANGE
     COUNTY...ALL INLAND VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST
     CALIFORNIA...BOTH THE SAN BERNARDINO NATIONAL FOREST AND THE
     CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST. SEE LAXRFWSGX.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SEE LAXNPWSGX.

     HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR DEVELOPING WINTER STORM LATER IN THE
     WEEK. SEE LAXESFSGX.

&&

PUBLIC... JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO