Drought in California, August 1 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING LOCALLY
INLAND. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR SOME BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOONS.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND. THE 00Z
NKX SOUNDING HAD AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 1700 FT WITH WEAK DRY WINDS
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH
8-9 MB SAN-IPL.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW AS A
TROUGH MOVES PAST FAR TO THE N. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
MARINE LAYER DEPTH TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG GETTING INTO ALL
COASTAL AREAS...MOST SAN DIEGO INLAND VALLEYS AND THE FAR WRN INLAND
EMPIRE. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE SHALLOWER FRI AND
SAT NIGHTS FOR A LITTLE LESS INLAND PENETRATION OF THE STRATUS.
THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER NEAR SOME BEACHES INTO THE
AFTERNOONS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. LIMITED MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SAT. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES IN TEMPS...REMAINING
NEAR SEASONAL IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW NEAR THE COAST AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH
WED. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL PEAK TUE WHICH WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. GRADUALLY DRIER WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DEVELOP BY THU AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW. SMALL CHANGES IN THE MARINE
LAYER AND TEMPS THROUGH WED EXCEPT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SLIGHT COOLING AND A LITTLE DEEPER MARINE LAYER TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
010300Z...00Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 2000
FEET WITH BASES AROUND 1600 FEET MSL. STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FILLING
IN ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COAST...AND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO ORANGE COUNTY BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. BASES WILL LOWER TO ABOUT
1200 FEET MSL OVERNIGHT. STRATUS SHOULD REACH THE INLAND VALLEY
AREAS BY MIDNIGHT...AND REACH KONT BY 11Z. LOCAL VISIBILITIES 3 TO
5SM BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z. ABOVE THE
MARINE LAYER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

.MARINE...
010300Z...ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OF 7.4 FEET THIS EVENING AT 905 PM
AND 7.3 FEET 950 PM TOMORROW MAY CAUSE LOCAL TIDAL OVERFLOW.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION/MARINE...MGM/SS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2008

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-011200-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
400 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES DUE TO LONG PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL THROUGH SATURDAY.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS NOT
REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATKIN