A 19-year-old man drowned off an unguarded portion on the northern part of Island Beach State Park in Ocean County on the morning of August 1st. His 57-year-old father was unable to rescue him.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PHI wrote it up.
A 19-year-old man drowned off an unguarded portion on the northern part of Island Beach State Park in Ocean County on the morning of August 1st. His 57-year-old father was unable to rescue him. His father had to be hospitalized after barely making it out of the water. About 75 people were involved in rescue efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 2:56 AM EST, 6 hours 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 356 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DISSIPATING NEARBY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE NEAR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY THEN MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SETTLING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING PLACED A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THEN WESTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY CLOUDS AROUND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND A FEW POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. THESE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TIED TO RATHER ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP MUCH EARLIER IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AS THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD. DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED SOME ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS SOME DRYING MAKES A SOUTHWARD PUSH. THE WEAKENING CLOUD MASS OVER OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK IS WHAT IS LEFT OF AN MCS, AND THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A VORTICITY CENTER IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A DEFINED MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THAT HOWEVER. SOME LIGHT HAZE AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER SOME DRYING IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WE DECIDED TO NOT CARRY A FOG MENTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS VISIBILITIES AT THE MAJORITY OF THE REPORTING SITES ARE WELL ABOVE 2 MILES. OVERALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANQUIL AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO TO SPEAK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONT EASING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OR DISSIPATING AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THIS WILL PROBABLY TOSS SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING AS MUCH CLOUDS TODAY AS WE SAW YESTERDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE SO SMALL THAT IT WILL NOT BE INCLUDED. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF TRIES TO POP AN ISOLATED STORM ON A SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY MIDLEVEL AIR, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD VERTICAL MIXING OCCURRING TODAY WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE LOWERING OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME THROUGH THE DAY AND WE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER GFS MOS VALUES. AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TOWARD THE ETA MOS FOR MOST LOCALES AS THE GFS MOS SEEMED A BIT TO WARM AND HAS BEEN SO IN THE PAST. WE DO NOTE THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE SO SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY BE ABLE TO ADDED A FEW DEGREES. FOR NOW, WE WENT WITH 90 TO 92 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TODAY, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE OF A RESISTANCE TO ANY SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE AMPLIFYING CYCLONIC FLOW. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. WE MAY EVENTUALLY SEE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE FEATURE /TIED TO THE SHORT WAVE/ TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THE SURFACE WAVE AS IT MAY BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED LEADING TO FEEDBACK, AND IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SUITE. AS A RESULT, WE WENT WITH A SLOWER TIMING WITH THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY, STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD /AROUND 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ AND SBCAPE TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MAY WIND UP BEING MORE, BUT FOR NOW WE WENT WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS TO A 40 POP DOWN SOUTH. WAA AT 850 MB IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE, THEREFORE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE FEATURE NEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY NOT BE THAT ACTIVE, INSTEAD CONVECTION WOULD BE MORE TIED TO THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING WIND FIELD/SYNOPTIC LIFT. MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES ON SATURDAY, AND THIS MAY HELP IN PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WOULD BE HELD DOWN SOME, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND OTHER PARAMETERS COMING INTO PLAY, SPC HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM THE DELAWARE RIVER EASTWARD. STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND THE EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL ADD IN A MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SINCE WE LEANED MORE TOWARD A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE HELD ONTO SOME LOW CHC POPS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT WILL BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE CWA. AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST SOME CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD AND A POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE SCOOTING NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, SOME CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY UTILIZED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND GRIDDED MOS. IF CLOUDS ARE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY, CURRENTLY ADVERTISED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT HIGH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THIS TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO START WITH A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WHICH DEEPEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION ACTUALLY TAKES PLACE AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD. AS WE GO THROUGH TIME THOUGH, THE TROUGH SHOULD TEND TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SHOVE THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS IS WHEN LOWER CONFIDENCE ARRIVES AS THE DEGREE OF THIS RIDGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES NEARLY ALL POINT TO SOME RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC, HOWEVER THEY DIFFER IN THERE AMPLITUDE. REGARDLESS, THIS EVOLVING SETUP STILL APPEARS TO ADVERTISE THE MCS POTENTIAL. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL SOMETIME DURING THE NEW WEEK, HOWEVER IF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH, MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE THE TURN PAST THE RIDGE AXIS. AS OF NOW, THE MODELS ARE AT ODDS REGARDING THE 500 MB JET AS SOME 50 KNOTS MAINLY STAYS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE ROBUST IN SLIDING THIS WIND FIELD FURTHER EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY. WE NEED TO MONITOR THIS THOUGH GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF WE MANAGE TO GET STRONGER WAA TO OUR WEST WHICH THEN IMPINGES INTO OUR AREA. THE UPPER FLOW THEN LOOKS TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS KNOCKED DOWN. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -12C OR 10F/ AT 500 MB. THIS MAY PROMOTE PLENTY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE AND IN CONCERT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. FOR NOW WE WILL PLAY THE SKY COVER CONSERVATIVE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY, THEN SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE EAST QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARM FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN AT OUR AREA TUESDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT PROBABLY GRADUALLY SETTLES INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH AT LEAST SOME UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE SPREADING EASTWARD, A HOTTER AIRMASS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING INCREASING HEAT NEXT WEEK HOWEVER EVEN THAT HAS BEEN OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE ECMWF STILL REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE TRUE HEAT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ATTM, WE DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HOWEVER WE DID IMPLEMENT SOME NEW MOSGUIDE DATA AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLLABORATIVE PURPOSES. THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE COLLABORATION EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE A GOOD ONE && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 0700Z, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION, WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE WIND WAS LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG. THERE WERE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KMIV AND KACY. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY VALUES TO DROP A GREAT DEAL. WE HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF EARLY MORNING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN AND KILG. WE HAVE ALSO FORECAST MVFR VISIBILITY VALUES TO CONTINUE AT KMIV AND KACY, WITH KMIV POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR A TIME. BOTH KPHL AND KPNE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MORNING SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX OUT ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BY 1400Z. FROM THAT POINT ONWARD, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH PERHAPS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION, WITH SPEEDS GETTING UP INTO THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. AFTER SUNSET, THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND THE DIRECTION SHOULD VARY AT MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT LEAST THROUGH 0600Z ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. && .MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST DROPPED INTO OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...GORSE LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...IOVINO MARINE...IOVINO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 445 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-020900- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 445 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM THE DELAWARE RIVER ON EASTWARD INCLUDING THE STATE OF DELAWARE. AT THIS TIME, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-450>455-020900- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 445 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Eastern Ocean | 2008-08-01 | 19 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Jersey in 2008Every state in 2008This day in weather historyWarnings in New Jersey, August 2008
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 131946.