Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX OF STORMS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAS PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARKANSAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE BOUNDARY. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER FROM THE COMPLEX
MAY AFFECT BPK AND HRO. COMPLEX SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...
WITH NEW ACTIVITY FORMING...MOSTLY TO THE WEST. OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...SOME STRATOCU WILL BE NOTED EARLY THIS EVENING...
BUT MOSTLY EXPECT TO SEE CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE STORM COMPLEX.
CU/STRATOCU WILL BE NOTED ON MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SMALL MCS MOVED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE
MOST PART...STAYED OUT OF THE STATE. THIS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BY
MID MORNING...WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY BE LINGERING AROUND ACROSS THE WEST...SO THERE COULD
BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES...FOR THE MOST PART THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH NEAR THE
BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DAMAGING
WINDS...AND SOME LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING...BUT HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH DUE TO PLACEMENT. IF LATER SHIFTS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE
THE MCS WILL MOVE...A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER.

MAIN ENERGY FROM THE MCS LOOKS TO DISSIPATE AROUND 15Z MONDAY...SO
HAVE SHOWN A DECREASING TREND IN THE GRIDS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OUT OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ONE ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT.

POPS AND QPF WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT ENERGY IS
LOCATED...AND WILL HAVE TO BE TWEAKED IN LATER FORECASTS. IF
TRAINING OCCURS WITH ANY OF THE SYSTEMS AS A WHOLE...FLOODING WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES WL DROP SEWD...RESULTING IN CONTD SMALL
CHCS OF CONVECTION. TIMING OF EACH IMPULSE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IS
DIFFICULT...SO KEPT POPS MAINLY IN SLGT CHC CAT. RAIN CHCS WL BE
AIDED BY A FNTL BNDRY THAT WL DRIFT BACK NWD INTO AR LATER IN THE
WEEK. MOS/NCEP TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE...WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
MADE FOR LOCAL EFFECTS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...57