Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO MID WEEK.

AT 18Z AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREV CONVECTION WAS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA /FA/. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. A TSRA COMPLEX WAS ACROSS IA/MO.

MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THOUGH NONE HAS REALLY CAPTURED
WHAT WENT ON THIS AM AND IS GOING ON NOW. WILL USE A BLEND FOR MUCH
OF FCST BUT NOT RELY ON THEM FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT...AT LEAST PART OF TSRA COMPLEX COULD BE
ACROSS THE FA AT 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE POPS KIND OF DIFFICULT IN TERMS
OF WHETHER TO GO LIKELY OR NOT. EITHER WAY MAV POPS ARE TOO LOW. FOR
NOW WILL GO 50 POPS WITH SCT WORDING. MOST LIKELY WILL REQUIRE
UPDATING AS EXTENT OF COVERAGE BECOMES APPARENT. /PRIOR TO 00Z WILL
UP POPS FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS ACROSS WRN FA TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE APPROACHING TSRA/. SPEED MAX MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AND WILL
GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE 50 POPS WITH SCT WORDING OVERNIGHT. FA IS STILL IN MODERATE
RISK AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT RISK IN HWO. OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY ADD TO SVR THREAT. MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO COOL ACROSS SRN
FA AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE THERE UNTIL LATE. THUS WENT WITH A
BLEND OF COLDER MAV AND WARMER MET NUMBERS.

FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON MON BUT WILL HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH FOR
CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SRN FA CLOSER
TO FRONT. MAV TEMPS LOOK TOO WARM FOR CLOUDS AND SCT PRECIP. AGAIN
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET.

UPPER LOW WILL SET UP ACROSS SE CANANA/NERN USA INTO MID WEEK. FA
WILL BE IN NW FLOW AND WILL KEEP COOLER CONDS ACROSS THE AREA. NW
FLOW IS NOTORIOUS FOR SENDING WAVES DOWN INTO THE AREA AND
GENERATING PRECIP...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF ANY ONE PERIOD TO
INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THUS HAVE KEPT TUE-THU DRY FOR THE
MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE. A BLEND OF MET/MAV LOOKS REASONABLE INTO
TUE FOR TEMPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MOST MODELS HINTING AT RAIN ON FRI AND SAT...SO
HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
A CONCERN MAINLY TONIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NR A KIND-KMIE LINE.
HOWEVER SO FAR NOTHING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG IT.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN IOWA.  THIS WILL MOVE OUR WAY AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE A CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM INDICATES A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AS CD FNT MOVES IN.
FORTUNATELY...PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. WILL END
THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS BY 12-15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

INZ021-028>031-035>042-045>049-052-054>057-062>065-072-161930-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-
MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-CLAY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
323 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 600 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL
A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ043-044-051-053-060-061-067>071-161930-
VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
323 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO INTO
TONIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 600 PM AND MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY
THREAT.

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE...EAST FORK
OF THE WHITE...MUSCATATUCK...AND WABASH RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE...EAST FORK
OF THE WHITE...MUSCATATUCK...AND WABASH RIVERS INTO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)