Flooding in Arkansas, April 3 to 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
636 AM CDT THU APR 3 2008

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION EXITS...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE THAT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. A
COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU APR 3 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ARKANSAS REMAINS ON
TRACK. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS
MAINLY NORTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT OF TEXAS. THE WARM FRONT IS IN SOUTH
LOUISIANA YET...BUT WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND ENTER SOUTH ARKANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE FRONT AND INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICES ARE GENERALLY ONE INCH OVER THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OUT OF TEXAS THIS EVENING AND BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CENTRAL AND WEST ARKANSAS ARE UNDER A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT EXITS ARKANSAS LATE
FRIDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY THEN GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING VERSUS THE PAST FEW
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DO DIVERGE
SOMEWHAT MORE ON DAYS SIX AND SEVEN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT THEY
HAD BEEN RECENTLY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING ...PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS SLICING THROUGH THE AREA BUT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THAT BEING SAID...WILL GO WITH THE EVER POPULAR BLEND APPROACH
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS THIS MORNING WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH BROAD TROFFING OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW DRAGS A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BOUNDARY IS LACKING MOISTURE
AND OTHERWISE DYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO MARK
ITS PASSAGE. PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY HAS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER BUT STILL...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED AT THIS POINT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT TROF MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH
YET ANOTHER LOW BEING CARVED OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
TROF WITH ECMWF CARVING OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WHILE GFS MOVES THE TROF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS THINKING
HERE AND JUST KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  54  62  41 / 100 100  90  10
CAMDEN AR         77  62  66  44 /  50  80  90  20
HARRISON AR       66  49  57  38 / 100 100  50  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  58  63  42 /  80  90  90  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  58  63  43 /  80  90  90  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  62  66  46 /  50  70  80  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  57  62  41 /  90 100  90  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  49  59  40 / 100 100  70  10
NEWPORT AR        68  56  63  42 / 100 100  90  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  60  65  44 /  60  80  80  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  55  61  40 / 100 100  80  10
SEARCY AR         70  57  63  42 /  90 100  90  10
STUTTGART AR      72  59  65  44 /  70  80  90  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT THU APR 3 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...MAINLY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS INCLUDES THE BLACK
RIVER...THE LOWER WHITE RIVER AND THE CACHE RIVER.

A WARM FRONT...OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTH DURING
THE DAY REACHING SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST EVEN AFTER THE FRONT HAS
MOVED THROUGH.

A DEEP TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST..DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE STATE BY MORNING. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE SURFACE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT.

A GENERAL TWO TO THREE INCH RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM AND MUCH WILL FALL ON
AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS STILL SATURATED FOR PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN.
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. AS SUCH...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY...GIVEN THAT ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL AGGRAVATE
EXISTING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS
...ROUGHLY WEST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME TO LITTLE ROCK TO WARREN LINE
WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LIES. HOWEVER...ANY PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG THE BLACK AND
CACHE RIVERS...AND THE LOWER REACHES OF THE WHITE RIVER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY DOES CLEAR. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT OVER THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE.
EVEN THOUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
THAT THE NORTH HAS...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
734 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     HAIL             4 E THORNBURG           34.93N 92.73W
04/03/2008  E0.75 INCH       PERRY              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 AM     HAIL             BLUE MOUNTAIN           35.13N 93.72W
04/03/2008  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

222

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
736 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     HAIL             2 E THORNBURG           34.93N 92.76W
04/03/2008  E0.75 INCH       PERRY              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

222