Hail in Texas, April 3 to 4, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1153 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

.AVIATION...
A DRYLINE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THEN LOWER TO IFR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING THEN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
SCATTERING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING.
EXCEPT, AREAS ALONG THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE HILL COUNTRY TO
NORTHERN AND THEN EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. SOME STORMS IN THE LINE MAY BE
SEVERE WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IMPACTING A TAF SITE WILL BE AT KAUS AND HAVE MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUP THERE BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z WITH ONLY MENTION OF CB AT
KSAT AND KSSF WHERE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WILL SHIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO NORTH AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS, THEN
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED STORMS THAT FIRED WEST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY DIED JUST
AS QUICKLY...AS THE DRY LINE RETREATED BACK WEST AND THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS CUT OFF HEATING.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND INCREASE DEW POINTS ACROSS WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS DRY
LINE HAS RETREATED.  THE 00Z NAM INDICATES CONVECTION WILL BE
DELAYED ACROSS THE NRN CWA AND MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE ONGOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008/

AVIATION...
A DRYLINE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE VFR THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING THEN LOWER TO IFR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY MORNING THEN TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CIGS EVEN
SCATTERING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXCEPT, AREAS ALONG THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND THEN EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. SOME STORMS IN THE LINE MAY BE SEVERE WITH
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IMPACTING
A TAF SITE WILL BE AT KAUS AND HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO GROUP THERE
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WITH ONLY MENTION OF CB AT KSAT AND KSSF WHERE
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION PRIMING
THE CWFA FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ATTM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING ALONG THE DRY-LINE ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS TO THE TRANS PECOS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER
THE BURRO MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS EVENING THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE OVER EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES. STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE BURRO MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND MAY
BECOME SEVERE. THE SEVERE THREAT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE ADJACENT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT AND
THIS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONVECTION WILL
BE EXITING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING REACHING THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN A DRY AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TO MID 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S WITH 40S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS. DEWPOINTS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE WARM AND HUMID WITH A PERSISTENT FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT
FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR
NEXT BEST SHOT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A DRY AIRMASS ON GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...KINNEY...MAVERICK...REAL...UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              65  72  50  79  54 /  40  50  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  72  45  77  48 /  40  40  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  82  50  82  56 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  76  50  81  54 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...KINNEY...MAVERICK...REAL...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...ZAVALA.

&&

01/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
300 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST...OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE WEST AND ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THESE STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AND THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS EVENING...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY LATE
TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING.