Flash Flooding and Hail in Arizona, June 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST THU JUN 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WITH LITTLE REINFORCEMENT
WE WILL START TO LOOSE A LITTLE MOISTURE BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME BUILDUPS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO HOTTER LEVELS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THIS CENTER IS BROAD IN NATURE AND THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM TEXAS TO ARIZONA. TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE BAJA SPUR. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS OVER ARIZONA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THIS FLOW
HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS PULLED
MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS
MOISTENING HAS ALSO BEEN AIDED BY OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE 12Z TUS SOUNDING IS PROMISING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY
DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASE. SOUNDING AND GOES IMAGERY INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.10 INCHES...WHICH IS UP ABOUT .30 FROM
YESTERDAY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS SLIGHT COOLING IN THE
SURFACE-500 MB LAYER...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPEDIMENT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. SOME
SLIGHT WARMING 460-370MB AND COOLING 370-280MB. OVERALL THE SOUNDING
SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHEN CONSIDERING AN AFTERNOON HIGH IN
THE LOWER 100S AND DEWPOINT IN THE MID 40S. INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH
STORMS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST.

UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF FROM MAIN TROUGH WEST OF SAN DIEGO
OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE MID-LEVEL UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING WEST OVER
NORTHERN SONORA. AS THIS OCCURS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...PUSHING THE BEST MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO. BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE EAST OF
TUCSON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS DRIER LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODEST INCREASES IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HELP
MITIGATE FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...HOWEVER THE ADDED
MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AGAIN...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRY LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY ERRACTIC OUTFLOW WINDS. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH A RETREAT TO LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EAST. CLOUD BASES WILL GENERALLY BE
HIGH WITH LEVELS ABOVE 10000 FEET. STRONG AND VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHOEMAKER

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1247 PM MST WED JUN 25 2008

AZZ019-029-030-033>035-260700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1247 PM MST WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAIN AS THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. THIS LOW LEVEL
DRYNESS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED MICROBURSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 9 PM THIS
EVENING...BUT GUSTY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT IF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
SONORA AND PUSH OUTFLOWS INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY...SO THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK