Lightning Strike in Arizona, June 24, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
205 PM MST TUE JUN 24 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE THE
HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE AS LIMITED MOISTURE RESIDES OVER ARIZONA. AN INCREASING
TREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE STARTING WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO BUILD OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS LIMITED MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW
MEXICO BOOT HEEL HAS TAPPED INTO MOISTURE FROM OVER MEXICO WHICH
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED...MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS WEST OF CALIFORNIA.
WITH THE HIGH MOVING NORTH...DECENT DIVERGENCE WILL OCCUR AT 250 MB
ALLOWING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MICROBURSTS INCREASING. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THE FORECAST WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
HIGH...AND THE LOW AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ALSO...SINCE THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALIZED
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 MPH. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG...ERRATIC...AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH BASES NEAR 12K FT AGL DUE TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF KTUS THRU 06Z TUE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN EXCEPT NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THRU 06Z TUE...WHERE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND QUITE
GUSTY AT TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

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WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON