Arizona, 2008

Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 5, 2008

July 5, 2008 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A localized microburst caused several downed trees at the Omni Tucson National Resort.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$5,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

A localized microburst caused several downed trees at the Omni Tucson National Resort.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 12:50 PM MST, 7 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 12:50 PM MST, 7 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1250 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GENERATE THE DAILY CYCLE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MID LEVELS GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH AN APPROACHING
WEAK TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWEST ARIZONA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM LAST EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...BUT ALSO OVER SONORA MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...A PRETTY GOOD CUMULUS FIELD IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHEASTERN SONORA AND ALL OF CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. RADAR IS DETECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM AND ALSO
THE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING UNMODIFIED SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING ABOVE
AROUND 550MB AND SLIGHT COOLING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE SOUNDING
EXHIBITED A PWAT OF 1.49 INCHES WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5 AND A
CAPE OF AROUND 2700 J/KG. HOWEVER...MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING
T=100TD=60 YIELDED A CAPE OF AROUND 2400 J/KG IF USING THE SURFACE
PARCEL LIFTING METHOD...BUT AROUND 1800 J/KG IF USING THE MEAN TEMP
LIFTING METHOD. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS STILL A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY ON
TAP. BASED ON THE SOUNDING AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TODAY. POP FORECAST OF
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST PLACES LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND INTO COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS THE HIGH GETS PUSHED EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH IS BACK TO
THE NW OVER CALIFORNIA...AND THIS ONE MOVES GENERALLY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A COL
GENERALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING UP FROM MEXICO INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NAM HAS BEEN DOING A FAIRLY
GOOD JOB AT DEPICTING THE DAY TO DAY ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART...SO
MY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE NAM...BUT
WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH THAT
SAID...I INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT
DRAMATICALLY. BASICALLY INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY OR SO. SHOULD
THEN SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...SO I INCREASED POPS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. THE PHOENIX OFFICE SAID THEY WOULD DO LIKEWISE.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
LOWS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO COLORADO THROUGH SUNDAY. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A DAILY CYCLE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A WET
PERIOD COULD BE STORE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG... ERRATIC...AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 06Z SUN...WHERE WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AT TIMES. OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STORMS COULD HAVE
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:28 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Pima

When
July 5, 8:30 PM MST
Where
Pima County, 3.46 mi E of Cortaro
Measured
61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$5,000
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
32.358, -111.022

Several large trees were downed at the Tucson Omni National Resort.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2008Every state in 2008This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2008

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 100428.